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ACUS11 KWNS 311548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311548 COR
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-311715-
Mesoscale Discussion 0375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Areas affected...Parts of eastern Georgia into the Carolina Piemont
Concerning...Tornado Watch 85...
Valid 311548Z - 311715Z
CORRECTED SEVERAL TYPOS
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 85 continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered vigorous thunderstorm
development, including the risk for supercells capable of producing
tornadoes, appears increasing probable through 2-4 PM EDT. Trends
are being monitored for the possibility that this may require a new
severe weather watch.
DISCUSSION...Within the pre-frontal plume of higher precipitable
water content, which is generally aligned with the strong southerly
low-level jet (including 50-60 kt around 850 mb), remnant
convectively generated cloud cover and precipitation is widespread.=20
However, breaks/thin spots in the overcast are allowing for weak destabilization of the moistening boundary layer, and this appears
to be contributing to at least some intensification of embedded
deeper convection. Most notably, currently, this includes an
organizing cell to the west of Waycross GA, but similar
intensification may be underway across the Piedmont of South
Carolina. With increasing breaks in the cloud cover probable into
early afternoon, these trends may continue.=20=20
Model forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs near the
strong 850 jet axis are in the process of becoming characterized by
increasing clockwise curvature, conducive to the evolution of
supercells with increasing risk to produce tornadoes. While these
may remain isolated to widely scattered due to the limited
instability, a new severe weather watch may be needed within the
next couple of hours.
..Kerr.. 03/31/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oITHY3m6XAX3FparfWn93b2GDGKmHzCKZ1OHncve81J8y3Q9_sQAAzoWIeduJWCcfB7IHSai$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31598323 32928260 34548181 35618094 36147961 35927890
34777924 33918004 31378173 30858299 31598323=20
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