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ACUS11 KWNS 310629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310629=20
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-310830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Tennessee...Far Western North
Carolina...Northern and Western Georgia...Eastern Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 84...

Valid 310629Z - 310830Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 84 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for wind damage, isolated large hail and a brief
tornado will continue for several more hours from parts of southeast
Tennessee southward into western Georgia and eastern Alabama.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed
squall line located from eastern Alabama extending northward into
eastern Tennessee. The line is located in weak instability according
to the RAP with MLCAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range. In spite of
this, the right entrance region of an 80 to 110 knot mid-level jet
is located in central Alabama. This feature will move
east-northeastward across northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia
over the next 3 to 4 hours. In response, lift and deep-layer shear
will strengthen making conditions favorable for severe storms. The
stronger bowing line segments within the line may produce wind
damage. A brief tornado may also be possible with rotating cells
embedded in the line. Isolated large hail could also occur with the
more intense parts of the line. The threat should move eastward into
western Georgia before daybreak where new weather watch issuance
will need to be considered.

..Broyles.. 03/31/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ukFpq2ZrKD49hFeGj2FqA2Q_vKOEAicUIQa7Ns74FVyT2ZbnAjBMJ4WOr4iZQXDhVBJV8L5V$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...

LAT...LON 35848483 35808514 35588538 34818536 32848603 31758580
31688516 31818441 32418402 34838386 35518424 35848483=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 271624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271623=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-271830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana into southern Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271623Z - 271830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely linger
through the late morning into the afternoon hours. Some
intensification is possible owing to diurnal warming, but weak
forcing for ascent and storm interactions will likely limit overall
storm intensity/longevity. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery has shown a slight uptick in
convective intensity over the past hour across parts of southeast LA
into southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Recent ACARS
soundings from along the northern Gulf Coast show deep
boundary-layer moisture with mid-level lapse rates near 6.5-7 C/km,
adequate to support MLCAPE values on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg.
Buoyancy should gradually increase through the day as filtered solar
heating drives warming surface temperatures into the upper 70s and
perhaps low 80s by late afternoon. Furthermore, 40-50 knot mid-level
winds sampled in recent VWP observations suggest deep-layer shear is
adequate to support organized convection.=20

These thermodynamic/kinematic trends are favorable for organized
convection, though weak forcing for ascent along residual outflow
boundaries and/or a weak cold front (evident just to the north of
ongoing convection in visible imagery) and the potential for
training convection/destructive storm interactions may modulate the
overall severe threat. The general expectation is for continued
convective development through the afternoon with transient
supercells capable of damaging winds and/or severe hail. Watch
issuance is not anticipated given the concerns regarding storm
longevity and coverage.

..Moore/Guyer.. 03/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7kFvXrJOtdJ6DZDOYmGEjI5Adi3baNH2QHuaOgNqg5nFCKCcY7XMMCGiA11AqDrLHZr-oATOf= b9BoW8kz5PI84esThs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30019123 30279105 31458800 31628738 31378698 30918665
30578659 30288678 30158706 29129000 29089029 29109061
29179080 29329112 29719126 30019123=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 032017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032016=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-032215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

Areas affected...Virginia Tidewaters

Concerning...Tornado Watch 87...

Valid 032016Z - 032215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 87 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours will focus in
the Virginia Tidewaters.

DISCUSSION...The warm front has lifted as far north into portions of
the Delmarva this afternoon. Ongoing activity is primarily along or
just north of this warm front. One discrete storm near Wakefield,
VA, as well some weaker cells to its southwest, will likely be the
main focus for tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours. The KAKQ
VAD still shows a favorable wind profile and the most favorable
remaining thermodynamic environment is within the Virginia
Tidewaters. Tornado potential right along the cold front will also
be present, but greater storm/outflow interaction may reduce the
threat to some extent.

..Wendt.. 04/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7FE6W04MF1TLzbtPuoaF7XhxaQNGYCHp-4EGrJPlh4qTU88btgkYt_tSHcebo_5XfpktAzMHh= X_i7X-dT_3Dtu7SqH0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...

LAT...LON 36667803 37007789 37647704 38037653 38237582 37557587
37097613 36457721 36267750 36247770 36447789 36667803=20


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