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ACUS11 KWNS 310144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310144=20
ALZ000-310345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Areas affected...parts of southwest and central AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 80...

Valid 310144Z - 310345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 80 continues.

SUMMARY...Increasing tornado potential for parts of southwest and
central AL through 1030 pm CDT as warm sector supercells develop
ahead of the convective band.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KMOB shows developing supercells
over Clarke and Marengo Counties as of 840pm CDT. These storms have
recently developed within the warm conveyor belt within an
environment characterized by intense low- to mid-tropospheric wind
fields (per KBMX 88D VAD data) and weak but increasing buoyancy.=20
The low-level moisture contribution to buoyancy will be the key
factor in the conditionality of tornado potential with these storms.
It appears the northern rim of mid 60s deg F dewpoints is near this
activity. Very strong low-level moisture advection via 50-60 kt 1-2
km southerly flow will act to destabilize the airmass immediately
downstream of these storms. As a result of an increasingly
favorable environment, tornado potential will likely begin to focus
over central AL during the next 2 hours with these warm sector
supercells. A strong tornado is possible, especially if updrafts
can further intensify/mature.

..Smith.. 03/31/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tbjaKtbtRDXkRT-e9W2Oj11cSx1LFdwqv8aJZq42alDvSYG-O2raSI0WuJqe7AQ7CeNg8wx_$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 32248776 33098724 33168680 32718677 31908738 31938769
32248776=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 270306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270306=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-270500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...east central Alabama into central Georgia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90...

Valid 270306Z - 270500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90
continues.

SUMMARY...The organized cluster of storms may begin to weaken within
the next hour or two, but could still be accompanied by potentially
damaging wind gusts into and across the Macon vicinity of central
Georgia by 1-2 AM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been generally maintaining vigor in at
least a compact zone east and south of the mesoscale convective
vortex. This continues to progress eastward in excess of 40 kt, and
appears focused along a weak mid-level baroclinic zone, embedded
within a narrow plume of higher precipitable water, with warmer and
more strongly capping environment to the south.

Based on recent surface analysis and model output,
east-southeasterly low-level inflow may become characterized by more
modest CAPE as it progresses east of the Auburn/Opelika area by
around 04Z. This should result in at least gradually weakening
updrafts, but strong lower/mid-level rear inflow could maintain a
risk for potentially damaging surface gusts across and east of the
Macon vicinity by 05-06Z.

..Kerr.. 03/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4NYdqaYwuBYqbKxhWarMLsiaonzLXpaBnLzAMZgPdLWzUFrPSxESGMMDuP_h0TrEHsUdjn3cy= ZVz80ON1CVLDZk3pt4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 32768589 33168440 33208327 32498306 32038463 31878633
32428590 32768589=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 031405
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031405=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-031530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0905 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

Areas affected...Portions of north FL and extreme southeast GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 85...

Valid 031405Z - 031530Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 85 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and tornado threat may continue
across parts of north FL. A local extension in area of Tornado Watch
85 is possible. Or, a new downstream Watch could be issued.

DISCUSSION...A cluster/loosely organized line of convection is
ongoing across north FL and far southeast GA this morning ahead of a
cold front. While the 12Z sounding from JAX showed substantial capping/inhibition and visible satellite indicates some anvil
shading, continued diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass
ahead of the line of thunderstorms should help gradually erode most
of the remaining MLCIN. Weak instability will likely be sufficient
to maintain convective structure and intensity given ample low-level
and deep-layer shear present on recent VWPs from KJAX. With around
200-250 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH present, embedded updraft rotation
within the line should continue to pose some threat for a few
tornadoes through the rest of the morning and perhaps into the
afternoon, as convection spreads east-southeastward across the north
FL Peninsula. Occasional damaging winds will also remain a concern
as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. A local extension in
area of Tornado Watch 85, or a new downstream Watch, will need to be
considered for parts of north FL.

..Gleason.. 04/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Ehsznm95CNwAylbzSm33fEfpOwqMC93Fs9BKgdkVGDaD06AYGx1fSSsaLoiRLD71K_VYMCM-= 473eLbgbAu8tACWH5k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29608366 30278296 30698203 30648150 30248135 29828117
29218095 28718191 28768270 29288357 29608366=20


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