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ACUS11 KWNS 302039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302039=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-302245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Areas affected...Southeastern Mississippi...western Alabama...Middle
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 302039Z - 302245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will continue eastward through western Tennessee
and much of Mississippi. A new watch will likely be needed for parts
of Middle Tennessee and western Alabama within 1-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Storms in southwestern/central Mississippi continue to
move east. This portion of the line has shown a greater eastward
motion than adjacent areas. With the low-level jet and mid-level
forcing expected to increase into Alabama later this
afternoon/evening, the environment ahead of this activity should
remain favorable for scattered wind damage and tornadoes,
particularly in portions of southern Mississippi into
central/southern Alabama. Farther north into Middle Tennessee,
buoyancy will be weaker, but strong wind fields and strong forcing
for ascent should maintain the line now entering western Tennessee
and northern Mississippi. A new watch will likely be needed within
the next 1-3 hours.

..Wendt/Hart.. 03/30/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qKlWzGuHfqo3nzjYZjLzmLuuF2U8aXA-Lp3xvF9uL9MVpkMpJnVGWNVG_zxxS_9b0V3uVcbq$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31398962 33298835 34128815 34898792 35888779 36558746
36368651 35398655 34238680 32518686 32428685 32298681
30848718 29968809 29978882 30398931 31398962=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 261907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261907=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-262100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...Southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 86...

Valid 261907Z - 262100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 86
continues.

SUMMARY...Transient strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely
through the next several hours across southern Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, including a couple
of supercells, continue across portions of southern AL and the FL
Panhandle. The strongest of these have featured organized
mesocyclones, but have thus far largely struggled to maintain
intensity for longer than 60 minutes. This is likely due to
relatively weak forcing for ascent given the displacement of
larger-scale ascent to the west across east TX/LA. Based off recent
surface observations and satellite trends, most lift has been
focused along the residual stationary boundary and/or weak
confluence zone within a modest warm advection regime near the
surface. Consequently, individual storm longevity is relatively
uncertain.

Despite this concern, recent observed 18 UTC soundings from LIX and
TLH show ample buoyancy across the warm sector (1500-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE) with minimal inhibition and 45 knots of effective bulk
shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment is very conducive
for severe convection in the presence of sufficient ascent. The
expectation over the next several hours is for continued development
of isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a few transient
supercells capable of severe hail/wind.

..Moore.. 03/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8hvY7of5wlwHpKIkw49XSLRsDMRXyueY-wUL5sMlFJuKoY0jC6ABtG1MUoZWiAxpnyIN0uqhm= yzlVHG-bcdO53HTc5c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 30338842 30728857 31118853 31488839 31768808 31878788
32268672 32328647 32498600 32578565 32568539 32498524
32338517 32098511 31418504 31178505 30898507 30728515
30488527 30368549 30358570 30358604 30398653 30408697
30338737 30268762 30198792 30178811 30238830 30338842=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 022254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022253=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-030200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...Central Alabama...Northwest
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 022253Z - 030200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will become more numerous through the
evening, with an increasing risk of tornadoes and damaging winds.=20
Watch issuance is expected in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A very warm/moist and moderately unstable and only
weakly capped air mass is in place this evening across much of
southern MS/AL, with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. Recent
satellite/radar loops show isolate showers and thunderstorms
beginning to develop in this region. Models have been consistent in
the development of a strong southerly low-level jet by mid-evening,
resulting in northward advection of the better moisture and
strengthening low-level wind fields. Forecast soundings suggest
rapid enlargement of hodographs after dark, with parameters becoming
quite favorable for supercells capable of tornadoes and damaging
winds. A tornado watch will be needed for parts of this region in
the next couple of hours as more robust convective initiation
begins.

..Hart/Guyer.. 04/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!99YqOWIvd-_gA8WLt7CsrVAXVNiqwlsEEohT1TXRRlBp8O_1NlzWAlMUHpRbL8RTernrehzuR= 2JyW7qKUM7HImDaQsw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32258913 33668809 34968490 33758421 32548536 31578849
32258913=20


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