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ACUS11 KWNS 301530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301529=20
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-301630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas...western/northern Louisiana...southern/eastern Arkansas and adjacent western
Mississippi and Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 301529Z - 301630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development, including
supercells, is expected through Noon-2 PM CDT, accompanied by a
gradually increasing risk for tornadoes and potentially damaging
wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Strong southerly low-level flow, including speeds of
50-60+ kt around 850 mb, will be maintained across Louisiana coastal
areas through much of the lower Mississippi Valley into this
afternoon, in advance of a vigorous short wave trough pivoting in
negatively tilted fashion across the southern Great Plains. In
association with this regime, a more substantive influx of low-level
moisture is ongoing off the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, across
upper Texas coastal areas as far north as areas near/east of the
Ark-La-Tex. This moistening is forecast to continue gradually
spreading northeastward and eastward across the lower Mississippi
Valley into this afternoon.

The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that substantive boundary-layer destabilization has already been occurring the past few hours across
much of Louisiana. As this persists and develops northeastward,
coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent, weakening mid-level
inhibition seems likely to allow for increasing and intensifying
thunderstorm development. In the presence of wind profiles
including strong deep-layer shear and large clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs, the evolution of a few supercell structures
seems probable. This may include within a developing line along an
eastward advancing convectively enhanced surface boundary, and
isolated discrete cells ahead of it, through 17-19Z.

..Kerr/Hart.. 03/30/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sXbk1UdoINbUHcAHkXe7V-vV27mCswDIh-hVNzpOb6PPWi5gN68lk3xpydDs25QXh5qFc6RR$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32609343 34749192 35918979 31769122 30059368 32609343=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 261546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261545=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-261745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 261545Z - 261745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form relatively
soon over southeast TX, moving into western LA before 3pm.=20
Supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible. A WW may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor loops show subtle shortwave trough moving
across central TX. Lift in advance of this feature will begin
affecting southeast TX in the next 1-2 hours, leading to scattered
thunderstorm development. A surface warm front is lifting slowly
northward across this area, providing the leading edge of near-70F
dewpoints and ample CAPE. Strengthening southeasterly low-level
winds ahead of the upper trough, combined with the favorable
thermodynamic environment, suggest the potential for supercells
capable of large hail and a tornado or two. The primary severe
threat is likely to evolve farther east and later this afternoon
over LA, but the initial storms may pose sufficient risk to require
a WW.

..Hart/Guyer.. 03/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7fZ1bASEraxlBJCM-v7KLIl96Vv0OLs0-N0UTAvKC1VN2U8IoeCJj-ix2tBUZGcTXmlT0WLzw= iJvFl0q_9hWWyAvyps$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 31069537 31969431 31689321 30719315 29989374 29629522
30169567 31069537=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 022050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022049=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-030145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Wisconsin and the
western/central Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 022049Z - 030145Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will gradually expand in coverage
over parts of WI and MI this afternoon/evening. Rates of 1-1.5
in/hour are likely within the heaviest banding along the western
shores of Lake Michigan.

DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis
showed a broad precipitation shield expanding north/northeastward
from a deepening surface cyclone centered over far northern IL.
Within this comma head structure, moderate to heavy rain has
gradually transitioned to snow. While temperatures have been only
marginally conducive for snow thus far, dynamic cooling and
low-level cold advection should allow for a full transition to snow
from west to east. Hi-res forecast guidance suggests the development
of one or more mesoscale bands is likely through this evening.
Likely driven by frictional convergence on the western lake shore
and slantwise convection, snow rates within some of these banded
structures may reach 1-1.5 in/hr.

Heavy snow will continue to expand east/northeastward across eastern
WI and the western UP through the afternoon and into the evening.
Confidence in the highest rates will remain along the western lake
shore where forcing for ascent and inland moisture advection are
expected to be the strongest. However, periodic heavy snowfall with
rates near 1 in/hr will remain possible across much of WI and the UP
through tonight.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7b8Sviq-2Y6RAGYGeFQlVr5z2_wPyXMjv-x4GACuQFHo-9PrW64JPBFahk7rZNUCQT0G7Fpph= nSp0mxR_wOuoYa4yis$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON 46738542 46368505 45948515 45238635 44728699 44108741
43688788 43628803 43398842 43288870 43218897 43238926
43718968 44298987 44948978 45448958 45848928 46088894
46298818 46628682 46708622 46738542=20


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