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ACUS11 KWNS 300326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300325=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-300500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0348
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Areas affected...North-Central TX to Southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 300325Z - 300500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually increase across the southern
Plains into southwestern Missouri over the next several hours.
Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, though a brief
tornado can not be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Strong large-scale forcing for ascent continues to
overspread the southern Plains late this evening, per expanding
mid-level cloud shield from the TX South Plains into northwestern
OK. Convection that initiated near the dryline has advanced well
ahead of the wind shift across OK with one supercell now moving into
southern McClain County. This lead cell will approach the eastern
edge of ww72 within the next hour. While the primary wind shift has
yet to surge across western OK, it's not entirely clear how much
additional convection will develop along the front, especially south
of I-40. Primary corridor for frontal convection may continue from
northern OK into western MO. With time this frontal activity should
spread east of ww70 which will warrant a new watch immediately
downstream, likely by 0430z.

While the primary severe threat should remain wind, cooling aloft
and weakening CINH will lead to profiles that will become more
conducive for near-surface based convection. There is some concern
that supercells that evolve later tonight could pose some brief
tornado threat given the strong shear and lowering lifted parcel
heights.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 03/30/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uW7aISe9q5T91qRNzGAMGY35PTOax5-IDajn3fPBx-Eu5ia5usevcVZ-vrVJXXNTONcs8SjQ$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34109763 38269490 37609380 33499633 34109763=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 260902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260901=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-261100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0348
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

Areas affected...central Mississippi...central Alabama...and
western/central Georgia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81...82...83...

Valid 260901Z - 261100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81, 82, 83
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/isolated severe storms are ongoing, and
should continue to increase in coverage early this morning. Very
large hail remains the primary severe risk.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a gradual expansion in storm
coverage from central Mississippi east-northeastward to central
Georgia, with a handful of severe/supercell storms ongoing. The
most intense storms are indicated from central Alabama to western
Georgia, though a storm in Neshoba County in east-central
Mississippi is also intensifying at this time.

Several recent reports of hail in the 2" to 2 1/2" range have been
received, and a storm crossing southern Troup and approaching
Meriwether County in western Georgia appears capable of additional
hail in this size range, in the short term. Overall, expect
additional supercell storms to evolve, accompanied by risk for
severe weather, as the background thermodynamic and kinematic
environment will remain supportive.

..Goss.. 03/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7wlboNXom31Vx4NYd5nbxTdbrTFtmVgN6fQNzxTD3b6HzqDs4TMopokgJT-fenrvmo6M1iHcR= pTP8YODPsgrUX-0V9o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 33628393 33368378 32778419 32228731 32168805 31798914
31869004 32129035 32868953 33288777 33538566 33628393=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 021659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021658=20
KYZ000-021900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0348
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 021658Z - 021900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...All severe hazards are possible this afternoon near an
outflow boundary in eastern Kentucky. A tornado watch is likely this
afternoon, though timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Outflow from this mornings convection along the Ohio
River has sagged into east-central Kentucky and has appeared to have
stalled. With continued heating, MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is
possible by this afternoon. This outflow boundary should provide a
focus for additional storm development this afternoon in addition to
convection in central Kentucky moving eastward. Convection that can
organize and interact with the outflow boundary, most likely to its
south, will pose a risk for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds. Regional VAD winds show low-level hodograph curvature. This
should improve with time as the 850 mb winds increase as the upper
low deepens. Winds are more backed (i.e. better low-level shear) to
the north of the outflow boundary, but destabilization is less
certain or at least will take more time to occur. A tornado watch
will likely be needed this afternoon, though the exact timing is not
clear.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9eLihuoN59s1armrOjiIRTeLqjnwIwSUBeA14PT8U40NbtFLYGEg82OE6SnJfv_4u_f-xDqxE= FfxSqpIWzxHhOIj9Kc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...

LAT...LON 36638418 36788477 37138467 37378432 37588399 38098385
38268377 38218348 37708253 37388253 36768355 36638418=20


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