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ACUS11 KWNS 292151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292151=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-292315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Areas affected...Western Oklahoma...Northwest/West-Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 292151Z - 292315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to
initiate along the dryline. Wind/hail are the primary concerns.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to
near-dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 4km across west TX into
western OK where surface temperatures have soared into the lower
90s. Thickening cu field is currently noted along the eastern edge
of this steep lapse-rate plume trailing to near I-20 north of BPG.
Showers are gradually increasing across western OK and 700mb cooling
is expected to remove remaining inhibition for deep, robust
convection. Latest thinking is scattered strong/severe thunderstorms
will develop along the dryline over the next few hours, initially
high-based, but with time potentially becoming near-surface based as
convection encounters increasingly moist low levels (~60F surface
dew points). Strong mid-level height falls/forcing will contribute
to an upward-evolving, broken squall line that will advance toward
the I-35 corridor across OK late this evening, a bit later in
north-central TX. Locally damaging winds and perhaps some hail are
the primary concern.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 03/29/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u9h2TFfEmJN4pnsQAkJw0I7JpcgUR2TFiicl1PQYsQ2ZWTh4TV2Yd81FjlaM1QwlrEvmL5Q2$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 31709981 31610068 33949986 35659935 36479892 35959786
33309876 31709981=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 251551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251550=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-251715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Ohio into extreme
northern West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251550Z - 251715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential should gradually increase through the day
in association with an eastward-progressing frontal band of
convection. Damaging gusts appear to be the main threat, though a
tornado or instance of marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.
Conditions are being monitored for the need of a WW.

DISCUSSION...A 992 mb, centered over south-central Lower MI,
continues to meander toward the north-northeast while deepening as a
100+ kt 500 mb jet streak overspreads the eastern OH Valley.
Coincidentally, ample diurnal heating with rapidly clearing skies is contributing to destabilization of the boundary layer, with 0-3 km
lapse rates already reaching 7-8 C/km (per 15Z mesoanalysis). The
increasing deep-layer ascent and buoyancy is likely contributing to
a strengthening band of low-topped convection located ahead of a
surface cold front across western OH (MRMS mosaic radar imagery
shows 18-30 dBZ echoes reaching 20-25 kft, with lightning flashes
already evident).=20

Modest low-level moisture (surface dewpoints barely reaching 50 F)
amid relatively cool tropospheric temperatures suggests that MLCAPE
profiles will be thin/short, perhaps barely exceeding 500 J/kg. As
such, storms should remain low topped through the day. However, a
50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet overspread by the 100+ kt 500 mb
jet is supporting very strong unidirectional speed shear. Very long
hodographs with modest low-level curvature (evident in forecast
soundings and regional VADs) suggest that several strong,
potentially damaging gusts are possible, and that a tornado or brief
instance of hail cannot be ruled out.=20

Area will be upgraded to a Category 2/Slight Risk in the 1630Z
Convective Outlook, and will be monitored for the need of a WW.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 03/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-zZEAD3RK8gS3ePE_byIfafQ9mvU5GhS-d0r9xSigBWHrX-iGBllNdOpi7voKO5Uy2W943k9U= MH9THaIWq7jbWDgSLE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 38588354 38768366 39428364 39948334 40738245 41278140
41488064 41448052 41388014 41117982 40697965 40297975
39828016 39248097 38798168 38508243 38368325 38588354=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 020956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020955=20
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-021130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...southern Indiana...northern Kentucky and southwest
Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 020955Z - 021130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is expected through late
morning across parts of northern Kentucky, southern Indiana and
southwest Ohio. Damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible
with this activity and a watch will likely be needed in the next
hour.

DISCUSSION...Upstream convection across southern IL/western KY into
southwest IN will continue to spread generally east this morning.
While instability remains modest across the region, strong vertical
shear is present and favorable for continued organized convection.
An increase in lightning trends across southern IL and the
background CAPE/shear environment suggest this activity will
continue within the vicinity of an effective outflow/stationary
front draped across southern IL/IN/southwest OH. Damaging gusts will
be possible with generally linear/bowing storm mode. However,
enlarged, curved low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH greater than
200 m2/s2 suggest some tornado risk also will accompany this
activity. A tornado watch downstream from WW 72 will likely be
needed in the next hour. It should be noted that additional severe
potential will overspread this same area again later this afternoon.

..Leitman/Smith.. 04/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9b5EV_pk13qd3J2V2u9X2i18y9BEPKHZfhgfNy4ZhkzcwjS3_sT6Q1yAASB7Xtsx1pJcQFN7S= 0xiXWR-zfZRca_HCy0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 38348725 38448684 38658611 39188463 39148416 38848386
38378367 38128378 37938425 37778548 37748687 37798731
38348725=20


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