• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0339

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, March 29, 2022 20:39:26
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292039
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292038=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-292245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0339
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

    Areas affected...Mid-Missouri Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 292038Z - 292245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Elevated storms are expected to develop by late afternoon.
    These storms will pose a threat for large hail and isolated damaging
    winds. A watch is possible later this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving
    into western portions of Nebraska this afternoon. Signs of
    large-scale ascent are increasing in south-central Nebraska with
    cumulus deepening near the triple point. Observed soundings through
    the day from OAX show mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km
    along with an increasing warm nose around 800 mb. Despite very
    limited surface moisture return ahead of the surface low, continued
    elevated lift near the frontal zones is expected to promote storm
    development by late this afternoon. With the low-level jet expected
    to increase within the next 2-3 hours, some potential exists for
    isolated development to occur. These initial storms would be capable
    of small to marginally severe hail. Further mid-level cooling will
    occur by early evening, leading to an increase in storm
    coverage/intensity. Large hail will become a greater risk with time
    as elevated buoyancy increases.

    The threat for damaging winds will be limited by storms being rooted
    above the surface. However, an isolated damaging gust is possible.
    Wind gust potential will likely be maximized in northwest Missouri
    into southeast Nebraska where low-level moisture will be greater and
    storms may be nearly surface-based.

    Trends will continue to be monitored for a potential watch later
    this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 03/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ufwwKNVDcqMBGQa5XeKbxOYY1eSrgSzLsL2_yEwF2B5hJqNtHOEf6VaSK3VCziulStOSFpyo$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 40779474 40479483 40019539 39979636 40359735 41619809
    42009831 42549818 43099753 43309689 43259640 41649520
    41169491 40779474=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, March 25, 2023 14:38:39
    ACUS11 KWNS 251438
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251438=20
    GAZ000-251545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0339
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0938 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central into southern Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 251438Z - 251545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...At least isolated severe thunderstorms appear plausible
    late this morning going into the afternoon hours. Damaging gusts and
    perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats with the stronger
    storms. Conditions are being monitored for the need of a possible
    WW.

    DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery has shown a steady increase
    in storm intensities over the past hour or so, with multiple
    updrafts showing 30 dBZ cores extending into the 35-45 kft range.
    The intensification of the storms is coincident with increased
    diurnal heating across portions of central and southern GA, where a southwesterly low-level jet continues to advect low-level moisture.
    The expectation is for surface temperatures to heat well into the
    70s F amid upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints by late morning/early
    afternoon, with MLCAPE likely exceeding 1500 J/kg. RAP forecast
    soundings depict relatively steep 0-1 km lapse rates, overspread by
    6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates in the low to mid-levels. As such,
    efficient downward momentum transport may support a few damaging
    gusts.

    Within the past hour, a transient supercell may have spawned a
    tornado in Houston County, AL (based on a possible TDS shown on KEOX dual-polarimetric radar data). While an additional tornado or two
    remain possible through the day, current regional VADs and RAP/NAM
    forecast soundings depict modestly sized/curved low-level
    hodographs, with a weakness noted in the 850-700 mb layer, driven by
    the departure of the low-level jet. As such, the tornado threat may
    be tempered by decreasing deep-layer ascent. Nonetheless, the
    overall severe threat may be prevalent enough that a WW may be
    needed.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 03/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ZWgpIRmwWCtHbrIu1p_Gtn7FjqqllnTs7x9qrhUa0_06dI9RxbwNGzPA-C8TGuzEfdiZdnKD= YZ6FQqPwdxw6haPlyk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 31178483 31748434 32498375 32878330 33078289 33098252
    32928197 32618168 32008160 31348186 30968242 30818333
    30728428 30768460 31178483=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 02, 2024 08:11:52
    ACUS11 KWNS 020810
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020810=20
    KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-020945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0339
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0310 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

    Areas affected...portions of southeast Indiana into far southwest
    Ohio and northern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 020810Z - 020945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible through early
    morning. Strong gusts and marginally severe hail to 1 inch diameter
    may accompany this activity.

    DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms near and north of the effective
    warm front draped across south-central IN will continue to shift
    east the next few hours. This activity is likely elevated given
    strong low-level inhibition and storms tracking just to the cool
    side of the surface boundary. However, strong vertical shear will
    continue to allow for organized storm structures within a modestly
    unstable airmass. Locally strong/damaging gusts and sporadic hail
    from 0.5 to 1.0 inches in diameter are possible with this activity.
    A watch is not currently expected with this ongoing activity, but
    one may be needed later this morning as upstream activity over
    southern IL spreads into a destabilizing airmass.

    ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/02/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ZpEFW7IOvsUcqjBIUVkyKHseJhI8PNIhZPzeylc96CW4zwPZnC3o2qto_OSWC1mrHJ900okH= 0pheZ10mKQKqzU8rGE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...

    LAT...LON 38708441 38708537 38668650 38718697 38888701 39378678
    39518617 39418493 39248441 39138428 38808421 38708441=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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