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ACUS11 KWNS 292039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292038=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-292245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0339
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Areas affected...Mid-Missouri Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 292038Z - 292245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Elevated storms are expected to develop by late afternoon.
These storms will pose a threat for large hail and isolated damaging
winds. A watch is possible later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving
into western portions of Nebraska this afternoon. Signs of
large-scale ascent are increasing in south-central Nebraska with
cumulus deepening near the triple point. Observed soundings through
the day from OAX show mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km
along with an increasing warm nose around 800 mb. Despite very
limited surface moisture return ahead of the surface low, continued
elevated lift near the frontal zones is expected to promote storm
development by late this afternoon. With the low-level jet expected
to increase within the next 2-3 hours, some potential exists for
isolated development to occur. These initial storms would be capable
of small to marginally severe hail. Further mid-level cooling will
occur by early evening, leading to an increase in storm
coverage/intensity. Large hail will become a greater risk with time
as elevated buoyancy increases.
The threat for damaging winds will be limited by storms being rooted
above the surface. However, an isolated damaging gust is possible.
Wind gust potential will likely be maximized in northwest Missouri
into southeast Nebraska where low-level moisture will be greater and
storms may be nearly surface-based.
Trends will continue to be monitored for a potential watch later
this afternoon.
..Wendt/Hart.. 03/29/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ufwwKNVDcqMBGQa5XeKbxOYY1eSrgSzLsL2_yEwF2B5hJqNtHOEf6VaSK3VCziulStOSFpyo$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40779474 40479483 40019539 39979636 40359735 41619809
42009831 42549818 43099753 43309689 43259640 41649520
41169491 40779474=20
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