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ACUS11 KWNS 070449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070448=20
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-070645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 PM CST Sun Mar 06 2022

Areas affected...parts of Arkansas and into adjacent southeastern
Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 34...

Valid 070448Z - 070645Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 34 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk -- including brief QLCS tornadoes and locally
damaging wind gusts -- continues.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection continuing to
consolidate into a loosely organized band of frontal convection,
stretching from southeastern Missouri to western Arkansas. The
strongest storms within the band remain over the Ozarks at this
time, where local/transient QLCS-type rotational signatures and
small-scale bowing segments have occurred over the past hour.

Farther to the southwest, storms have remained generally weaker/less
organized, though the environment remains supportive of occasionally
severe updrafts.

Convection remains generally well-contained within the watch. While
limited potential may spread east of the southeastern borders of the
current watch, the more robust convection farther north should
remain within WW boundaries for a couple more hours. Though frontal
storms will likely continue through the night, CAM guidance suggests
a decrease in storm intensity -- and thus overall severe potential
-- with time. As such, need for a downstream WW into parts of
western Kentucky/western Tennessee remains uncertain at this time.

..Goss.. 03/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v4oO_oKuXtGO5nEOJA08lQwSMQJWsECK888mdMr-Tu5wHVbePeQ_Z4w9yV7LsQLb6XzDmfzZ$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON 37608957 37258850 36098914 35798975 35569062 34689211
34309360 34349409 35079345 36849194 37559101 37608957=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 011307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011306=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-011500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2023

Areas affected...parts of north central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011306Z - 011500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe storms posing at least some
risk for severe hail are possible this morning across across north
central Texas. It remains unclear whether a severe weather watch
will be needed in the near term, but trends will continue to be
monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Mid/upper flow is strong, and strengthening, but
remains broadly anticyclonic across the much of the southern Great
Plains, toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard, around the northern
periphery of subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean.=20
However, a number of subtle perturbations are progressing through
this regime, and the passage of one may be contributing to ongoing
thunderstorm development near the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.

Based on comparison of Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, and
the 12Z observed sounding from FTW, it remains unclear whether
ongoing activity has been supported by destabilization associated
with a more elevated moisture return, or deepening lower-level
moisture return and forcing through a lingering capping layer
centered near or above the 850 mb level. Guidance suggests that
with time, it may be closer to the latter, in which case storm
inflow may become characterized by sizable CAPE, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates.=20

As long as deep convection is maintained, and further warming aloft
does not tend to suppress the thunderstorm development, stronger
storms may eventually become capable of producing severe hail, in
the presence of strong deep-layer shear.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 03/01/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5h_sEPqiTTXK1_5F1Ne9hZU8ILcR0ObWD3F7eN-u0yI1ZmT2sYRnoKmzgRLELA3WgxZ5HFEy5= az1oupqJnbEg1OFxJw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 32439937 33519764 33819464 32369554 31749766 31699871
32439937=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 092057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092057=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-092300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024

Areas affected...North FL into extreme southeast GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092057Z - 092300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some severe potential may persist through late afternoon,
though the threat should become increasingly isolated with time.

DISCUSSION...A prefrontal convective band is ongoing from north FL
into extreme southeast GA late this afternoon. In general, storms
have gradually become less organized with time, possibly due to weak
surface convergence ahead of the cold front and relatively limited
large-scale ascent. However, buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and
deep-layer flow/shear (effective shear of 50-60 kt) are still
favorable for organized convection, and a couple stronger
cells/clusters cannot be ruled out through the remainder of the
afternoon. Locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado will
continue to be the main hazards, though with the threat expected to
become increasingly isolated with time, new watch issuance after the
4 PM EST expiration of WW 34 is considered unlikely.

..Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5M-ruc8buJ79DfO3lPTwAa3dcBrLC8dGpfTFV3tpkcn19W3B-Lot3AQ5irSYZ3CvLyEq_6cik= iz3sAo8eWqo1f54r4Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29888392 30668248 31018152 30618126 30198124 29898148
29618222 29498272 29478308 29528357 29888392=20


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