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ACUS11 KWNS 062144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062144=20
ARZ000-062315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Sun Mar 06 2022

Areas affected...Portions of AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 33...

Valid 062144Z - 062315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 33 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat, including the potential for a
few tornadoes, should focus across parts of Arkansas over the next
couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...The VWP from KSRX (Ft. Smith, AR) has shown a marked
increase in the strength of the low-level winds in the lowest 2 km
AGL over the past couple of hours. 0-1 km shear based on the most
recent KSRX VWP is around 40 kt, with deep-layer shear in excess of
60 kt. Current expectations are for the low-level shear to further
increase across much of AR late this afternoon and early evening as
a southerly low-level jet strengthens to 45-50+ kt. Continued
low-level warm/moist advection to the south of a front and diurnal
heating are supporting MLCAPE generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg range.

A 21Z special sounding from LZK shows that an inversion centered
near 640 mb has eroded/weakened some since 12Z. This inversion has
probably hindered robust supercell development across the warm
sector so far this afternoon, but it is forecast to continue eroding
over the next few hours as cooler mid-level temperatures and ascent
associated with a shortwave trough over the southern/central Plains
overspread this region. As this process occurs, storms should
strengthen across parts of western into central and northern AR.
Tornadoes will be possible with any supercell that can develop and
be sustained. A strong tornado appears possible as effective SRH
increases into the 250-350+ m2/s2 range, especially by early
evening. Isolated large hail may also occur given the mainly
discrete storm mode, degree of instability, and modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates.

..Gleason.. 03/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o1VVgEF5mMCXGU0N6Py63sJGaDZb8eM-PxN3MuLf3_Hjiu9oN_s0LNV5FUqmOdNms69HBzjc$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34009426 34749440 35259439 35709394 36079344 36229262
36209167 36349111 36209053 35919043 35569060 35429101
35129206 34669292 34019356 34009426=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 272334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272334=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-280130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Ohio...West Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 48...

Valid 272334Z - 280130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will shift east across ww048 into western
West Virginia over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting east across
OH early this evening. Associated surface front has surged to near
ZZV-UNI-HTS, and will soon advance east of the current watch.
Several robust supercells are noted ahead of the front from central
portions of ww048, extending into southwest portions of WV. This
activity appears to have progressed beyond the axis of greatest
buoyancy, and further eastward movement should result in gradual
weakening where surface dew points are in the upper 40s/lower 50s.
However, given the strength of the short-wave trough, a few strong
storms may advance beyond the eastern edge of ww048 before weakening significantly. Some consideration for a local extension may
warranted across portions of central WV to account for this threat.

..Darrow.. 02/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8tEUgCEgbp6Xc69iZAbM475DizV6mSuhlqWaw-JRX_of0mlkhhiJ3l86vKFHZCXIu3PvVdNF7= 6_AXMckkr_u8HkVH9Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 38208217 39008188 39808176 39928090 39348046 38268120
38208217=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 090722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090722=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-091115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024

Areas affected...extreme southeast Alabama...western Florida
Panhandle...and far southwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 090722Z - 091115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms could gradually intensify through early morning,
with a conditional threat of a tornado or a few damaging gusts. The
area is currently under observation.

DISCUSSION...A slow-moving front currently extends from near the MS
Coast into southeast AL, reinforced by convective outflow.
Thunderstorms persist along this boundary, with periodic stronger
cores.

The air mass at the surface remains very moist with dewpoints above
70 F over much of the area, the exception being the eastern FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, just east of the low-level theta-e plume
and surface trough. Subtle environmental changes are expected
through morning, and may result in an increase in severe potential, specifically, the threat for a tornado or localized damaging winds.

First, indications are that a deeper moist plume over the northern
Gulf may aid destabilization and moistening. While surface
temperature may not rise, slightly better quality moisture is
expected 1-2 km off the surface. Second, midlevel cooling with the
upper trough will persist with 1-2 C temperature drops at 500 mb
through 12Z. All the while, low-level shear will remain favorable
for a brief tornado risk with 0-1 SRH of at least 200 m2/s2.

As such, a conditional risk of isolated severe storms may
materialize later this morning, and convective trends are being
monitored along the front. Any substantive strengthening of the
storms could yield watch potential.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5_5MFSaincv2uzrv_7aMRIv5wgMi7c-hmtTWsKWR3El6pl3nYaOIyGL7BmJSm3ZEiu-jaj1lP= UQKdL65kpIs64F0mj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30858762 31088724 31318657 31538610 31558547 31658498
31838437 31708392 31298371 30908423 30528503 30138579
30298628 30328679 30258715 30278740 30548771 30858762=20


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