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ACUS11 KWNS 241143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241142=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-241345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern NC and southeastern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241142Z - 241345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong/gusty winds and perhaps a
brief tornado may exist this morning. Watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A low-topped cell in central NC has recently
strengthened and shown signs of low-level rotation. The environment
downstream across central/eastern NC and southeastern VA appears
marginally supportive of surface-based storms, with MLCAPE no more
than 500 J/kg. Still, strong deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt exists
over this region owing to a mid-level jet extending across much of
the East Coast. Recent VWPs from KRAX show modest veering of the
low-level flow, but around 30 kt of speed shear is present in the
0-3 km layer. Both strong/gusty downdraft winds and perhaps a brief
tornado appear possible this morning as convection spreads quickly northeastward. The current extent of ongoing storms will likely
serve as the northern limit of any appreciable threat in the near
term. Poor lapse rates and limited instability should keep the
overall severe threat rather isolated, and watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Grams.. 03/24/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qlMqPiNJu0CRQb9QdO8AmlAC6mo6r5K1AP5RSRonJrJjXHnsT4PDJNqQAZTgQsuTsjGtOuby$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 35387884 36337809 36747749 37237638 37407600 37407569
36937592 36547582 36187581 35517707 35267765 35237837
35387884=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 250356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250355=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-250630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...south central and southeastern Kentucky...middle
into eastern Tennessee....northern Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 77...

Valid 250355Z - 250630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 77 continues.

SUMMARY...An organized line of thunderstorms may pose a continuing
risk for damaging wind gusts another couple of hours, but this
threat probably will diminish across the Cumberland Plateau by 2-3
AM EDT. A new severe weather watch currently seems unlikely, but
trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A well organized convective system continues to evolve
to the east and south of the mesoscale convective vortex, preceded
by a notable meso low migrating northeastward near/northwest through
north of Nashville vicinity. Richer boundary-layer moisture
characterized by 60s F+ dewpoints is becoming cut off near the
southern Tennessee border, which model forecast soundings indicate
will minimize destabilization northeastward across middle Tennessee
toward the Cumberland Plateau. However, 70s F+ surface temperatures
have been maintained in a plume wrapping into the center of the meso
low.=20=20

Given the strength of the west-southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric
wind fields (40-70+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) impinging on the
rear of the convective system, the low-level thermodynamic profiles
with warm and unsaturated layers may support a continuing risk for
downward mixing of potentially damaging gusts to the surface. This
probably will persist at least another hour or two, but may begin to
diminish as forcing for ascent spreads into the Cumberland Plateau
toward 06-07Z, where the boundary layer remains cooler and warm
advection may not contribute to appreciable warming.

..Kerr.. 03/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!50ZeaE8iahoAMWMmYaMrfEYbEeQkrhxBf1SHtOIdkrEWfZYOakQjouTb3LaejhN_mv0jYYC8r= pe36tBfHhKOPwEl4Xw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 36138439 35228521 34178754 34398820 35598709 36798679
37098425 36138439=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 020144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020144=20
TXZ000-020315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Areas affected...portions of central into southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020144Z - 020315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of
central and southern TX ahead of the cold front. Large hail and
damaging gusts are the main threat with the more intense storms. A
WW issuance is unlikely since the severe threat should remain
isolated.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular storms and transient supercells have
developed ahead of a cold front across central into southern TX
toward the Rio Grande, and are poised to move eastward into an
increasingly buoyant airmass. Upper 70s to low 80s F surface
temperatures and 70+ F dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
rates are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (per 01Z
mesoanalysis). Regional VADs and 01Z mesoanalysis show elongated
hodographs with some low-level curvature, but also considerable CINH
in the 850-700 mb layer (as also shown by RAP forecast soundings).
Furthermore, regional radar data suggests that many of these storms
are anafrontal, and are occurring in a region of weaker deep-layer
ascent compared to areas farther north. Large hail and damaging
gusts may occur with some of the stronger storms if they can mature
and sustain themselves this evening. A WW issuance appears unlikely
since the overall severe threat should remain isolated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-AA23HZDBQcp5LQGcw6mtyyn_sJB661LxOjye3LRyHFGB6FAtBtsYjPqTXi_uti-CQYO2OjdS= FLmqXt7L1Kchay4Zmo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 28660046 29999980 30929845 31389674 31329574 30939560
30259576 29489636 28969700 28719778 28489944 28660046=20


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