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ACUS11 KWNS 232013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232012=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-232245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

Areas affected...Parts of the South Carolina into North Carolina
Piedmont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 232012Z - 232245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development, including one
or two supercells posing a risk for tornadoes, appears possible by
6-8 PM EDT. While it is not certain that a severe weather watch
will be needed, trends are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm air and moisture advection, and
insolation with increasing breaks in cloud cover, are contributing
to gradual boundary-layer destabilization along a remnant surface
frontal zone across the Piedmont. With further insolation, and weak
cooling in the 700-500 layer forecast through late afternoon, models
suggest that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg may
develop. It appears that this will coincide with the
east-northeastward propagation of a 45-50 kt speed maximum around
850 mb.

Mid/upper forcing for ascent appears likely to remain generally
weak, but models have been suggestive that scattered discrete
thunderstorm development is increasingly possible through 22-00Z.=20
With deep-layer shear already strong, beneath 50-70 kt southwesterly
flow around 500 mb, enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
may become favorable for the evolution of at least one or two
supercells that may pose a risk of producing tornadoes.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/23/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!srNZhS3JTYn49oFkLhISvWG8VRFRypeicQ-EyP1DCKt166s4rfbflGZVuiBRvpQTQ9QS275F$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34887974 34388192 35178228 36168069 35587915 35037916
34887974=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 242232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242232=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-250000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...Parts of south-central LA into far southwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 242232Z - 250000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple supercells are possible during the next hour or
so over parts of south-central LA. A tornado or two is possible,
though the duration and magnitude of the threat is unclear.

DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar data shows clusters of storms
evolving along north/south-oriented confluence bands deep in the
warm sector over parts of south-central LA. While increasingly
large, clockwise-turning hodographs are developing over this area
per regional VWP data, this area is removed from the stronger
low-level mass response accompanying the larger-scale trough and
developing surface low farther north. Therefore, it is unclear if
these storms will mature into organized cyclonic supercells prior to
spreading northward into Tornado Watch 76.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-x73fsvCsAJO0YxzmWzuh7AmN873P-Crxc96vFmu01n3H469rE9CeIyi-7OBx-l4XI67LgJj4= DOf3OnledN_BVnQfuU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30449244 30529306 30769344 31139344 31419314 31539265
31469158 31129119 30659115 30509148 30449244=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 012226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012226=20
TXZ000-020000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Areas affected...portions of western Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66...

Valid 012226Z - 020000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 66. Very large hail and hurricane-force gusts will remain
possible with the strongest storms through evening, and a tornado
cannot be ruled out. Storms may develop farther south across
southwestern into central TX and local WW extensions or new watches
may eventually become necessary.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, including supercells, have been
progressing eastward across portions of northwestern TX with a
history of up to baseball sized hail and near 90 mph measured gusts.
Diurnal heating ahead of the ongoing line of storms has allowed for
surface temperatures to warm to over 80 F amid upper 60s F
dewpoints, minimizing CINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg (per 22Z mesoanalysis). Buoyancy is modest, but more than adequate in
supporting continued significant-severe weather given the presence
of 80+ kts of effective bulk shear (driven by a 30+ kt low-level jet
overspread by over 80 kts of 500 mb southwesterly flow). As such,
the more sustained supercell structures may continue to produce
severe hail in the 2-3 inch diameter range, along with severe gusts
peaking between 75-90 mph. The best chance for significant-severe
storms will be over northwestern into north-central TX, where
deep-layer ascent is the strongest. Additionally, regional VADs and
22Z mesoanalysis does show some slight low-level hodograph
curvature, suggesting that a tornado cannot be ruled out as well.

Farther south, storms are attempting to develop closer to the Rio
Grande. However, overall forcing for ascent is weaker, raising
questions pertaining to storm coverage. Still, given the strong
deep-layer shear present, any storms that can mature and become
sustained will present a severe hail/wind risk. A local spatial
extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66 may be needed if
confidence in convective coverage increases farther south into
southern and central TX.

..Squitieri.. 04/01/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!51f5ucWMjIm4ssLPaRyWlRRGcMl29Pk6rgi-U-anfKq4QSAiBxmfcFexmO8XC1ZbVnIxzS1Gj= iJ5d4qgzkpjVBUdoRo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29080091 29730135 30990084 31810003 32809879 32969812
32999740 32939686 32789678 32429708 32059749 31029868
30130005 29080091=20


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