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ACUS11 KWNS 222233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222233=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-230000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into southwest
Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...62...

Valid 222233Z - 230000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61, 62 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches
061-062, with the greatest short-term threat for tornadoes
associated with supercells along the Mississippi/Alabama border.
Elsewhere, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany
stronger line segments.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts a broken QLCS from
the TN/AL border into southeast LA, which continues to progress
eastward with time. This QLCS has an extensive history of producing
damaging gusts and tornadoes. Immediately ahead of the squall,
semi-discrete supercells have recently demonstrated transient
periods of strong low-level rotation, with up to 40 kt rotational
velocities noted on some storms (i.e. Wayne County, MS). The 2207Z
MOB VWP depicts long, curved hodographs, bearing near 400 m2/s2 SRH
in the 0-1 km layer alone, indicative of ample low-level shear for surface-based, sustained supercell structures to produce tornadoes.
Latest deterministic HRRR and Warn-on-Forecast ensemble guidance
also depict an appreciable concentration of mid-level rotation
tracks along the southeast MS/southwest AL border over the next
couple of hours, and this is where the greatest short-term tornado
potential resides. The George County, MS supercell may have the best
tornado potential since it has the longest residence time in the
warm sector with unimpeded inflow.

..Squitieri.. 03/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u86pb_FhI6whZs3b7ifEXNgeZRYZm084hObFeZB0nz2Z8ESJejaJh7_6-h17hzLEznxXGwDT$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29859127 31389052 32198946 32818851 32778801 32468767
31798756 31308760 30868786 30448837 30018891 29859127=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 232324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232323=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Areas affected...Northwest TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71...

Valid 232323Z - 240100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms in northwest TX should gradually intensify into the
evening hours. Large hail is the primary concern, though locally
severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will also be possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KFDR shows recent
intensification of a small line segment in northwest TX immediately
ahead of a triple point. Additional isolated storms are developing
farther south along the dryline into Fisher County TX. While
persistent cirrus clouds have limited destabilization ahead of this
activity to an extent, middle 60s dewpoints beneath steepening
midlevel lapse rates ahead of an approaching shortwave trough are
contributing to moderate pre-convective instability (around 1500
J/kg MLCAPE). Over the next couple hours, hodographs should expand
in size and clockwise curvature ahead of these storms, supporting
gradual intensification across the southern portion of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 71 and potentially areas slightly south. While boundary-parallel storm motions and deep-layer shear could favor
supercell clusters capable of large hail and damaging gusts, a
tornado cannot be ruled out with any cells that remain more discrete
given the increasing boundary-layer streamwise vorticity.

..Weinman.. 03/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9aYf9ApScGuCZIWmOtx7whRK6BCbRacqzX0Wkk06t-IfISowAAi3sr0Vtpl4MHl_IufRUwect= jS9NWUs0HWdhNjCjck$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33699966 33879936 34059900 34139876 34179842 34139812
33979794 33649799 33299843 32549949 32349996 32340029
32470039 32830023 33280001 33699966=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 302309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302309=20
WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-310045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern OH into extreme
southwest PA and northern WV

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63...

Valid 302309Z - 310045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe hail remains the primary concern with ongoing
storms across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63, though a tornado cannot
be ruled out. These storms should persist for at least a few more
hours while rapidly moving southeast. Local watch extensions may be
needed in the next few hours ahead of the more robust storms.

DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete/semi-discrete supercells are ongoing
across portions of central into southeastern OH, which have produced
several instances of 1+ inch hail over the past few hours, as well
as persistent tracks of 1+ inch MESH tracks per MRMS mosaic radar
data. These storms are tracking along the eastern extent of a 7+
C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, which also overspreads a surface
thermal ridge that is contributing to a well-mixed boundary layer.
Both 22Z mesoanalysis and some of the latest regional VADs all
depict elongated hodographs well downstream of the ongoing storms.
Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear,
additional instances of severe hail are expected into the evening
hours. Since there is some appreciable low-level curvature to the
hodographs, a tornado cannot be completely ruled out, though very
limited low-level moisture should limit the tornado threat.

Many of the ongoing storms have forward speeds at or above 40 kts,
suggesting that some of these storms may reach the southern and
eastern bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63 before severe hail
potential diminishes. As such, WW spatial extensions may be needed
over the next few hours pending convective trends.

..Squitieri.. 03/30/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_0u8lldyM9u3GUAhoRD4HB3O22BoRrFMvnkp-4YtAztSuLoo8gcQ8cDvK2g4sw06Q1tA5zh53= awC5x8eT4CrfRYaD14$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

LAT...LON 39818296 40168134 39998044 39547972 38917981 38538034
38548112 38798217 39028312 39198354 39318370 39818296=20


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