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ACUS11 KWNS 222155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222155=20
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-222330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Areas affected...portions of Southern-Middle Tennessee...extreme
northeast Alabama...extreme northwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 222155Z - 222330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional severe threat may develop with the
approaching squall line across southern-Middle Tennessee if adequate
moisture can arrive on time. A couple of damaging gusts would be the
main threat, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS with a history of damaging gusts and
tornadoes is approaching portions of southern-Middle Tennessee.
Ahead of the QLCS, temperatures are in the mid-70s F surface
dewpoints, with dewpoints approaching 57 F. At the moment, buoyancy
is scant ahead of the squall, and RAP forecast soundings suggest
that dewpoints need to reach or exceed 59 F before convection can
become sufficiently rooted in the surface-layer to ingest the
abundant low-level streamwise vorticity to otherwise support a more
appreciable severe threat. Latest surface observations have shown up
to 59 F surface dewpoints across Lauderdale County, AL. As such, it
is possible that enough surface-based buoyancy may advect ahead of
the line into far southern-Middle TN to support the potential for a
few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado. Either way, conditions
will continue to be monitored increasing buoyancy into TN and the
need for a possible WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 03/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qSuextPE87bmKFlRMzjUwQeHCkk-3G1vKg6QmPU1nk1RtuqqBg3x_dlaeHNsiC6EDFB0FlQj$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON 35908589 35908559 35738464 35478449 35078466 34628504
34558567 34668617 34958693 35038750 35248782 35638790
35888767 35948710 35948635 35908589=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 232240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232240=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-240015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Areas affected...Far eastern OK...northwest AR...southwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71...72...

Valid 232240Z - 240015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71, 72
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells could gradually intensify during the
next couple hours. Large hail and locally damaging gusts are the
main concerns, though a tornado will also be possible.

DISCUSSION...Northeastward-tracking supercells are ongoing
along/slightly north of a stalled surface boundary extending from
far eastern OK east-northeastward into south-central MO. Thus far,
the overall flow regime has favored storms evolving
along/immediately north of the surface boundary, resulting in
primarily a large-hail threat. While hail reports have been
sub-severe so far in this area, a developing surface low along the
boundary in eastern OK coupled with a gradually strengthening
low-level jet could favor an increase in storm intensity during the
next couple hours.=20

In addition, outflow associated with a supercell cluster in eastern
OK is having a tendency to re-orient the stationary boundary to more northeast-southwest -- yielding off-boundary flow/shear into the
open warm sector. If this activity (or any storms along the
boundary) obtain stronger midlevel mesocylones and propagate
slightly eastward off the boundary, damaging gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two will become an increasing concern. Overall,
confidence in this scenario is low given recent convective trends,
and large hail should be the primary threat.

..Weinman.. 03/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6kppssWD9kUCS1rpR0ct7st13SDamPcs0gvb92hlPGgpCxnG8n2tGCKRk7rTKV8IzrAO5woCG= V4gGdHKupUcyEGphSg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35859498 36079478 36309438 36809345 37009295 37269225
37369189 37019172 36539182 35849339 35539406 35399467
35619500 35859498=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 302027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302027=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-302300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024

Areas affected...Far East-Central IN into Central/Southern OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 302027Z - 302300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail (1" to
1.75") and/or damaging gusts (from 40 to 60 mph) are possible this
afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis places a low over north-central
OH (about 30 miles east-northeast of FDY). A warm front extends east-southeastward from this low across southeast OH into far
northern WV. A modest surface trough also extends southwestward from
this low across central IN and central IL. Filtered heating in the
wake of the early morning cloud cover has allowed temperatures to
climb into the upper 60s/low 70s within the warm sector
south/southwest of the warm front and to the east of the surface
troughing. Low-level moisture remains modest, with dewpoints in the
upper 40s/low 50s. Even though the low-level thermodynamic
conditions are relatively modest, these conditions combined cold
mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) and
associated steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to air mass destabilization.

This destabilization is verified by increasingly agitated cumulus
just ahead of the surface trough over far east-central IN and far
western OH. Given the veered low-level flow, convergence along the
boundary is limited. However, ascent along the boundary will be
augmented by large-scale ascent attendant to a fast-moving shortwave
embedded within the strong westerly flow aloft. This combination of
ascent and destabilization will likely result in convective
initiation. Buoyancy will be modest, but deep-layer vertical shear
will be strong. Recent mesoanalysis estimates 50 to 60 kt of 0-6 km
bulk shear across the region. As such, any deeper updrafts could
become organized, capable of producing large hail (1" to 1.75")
and/or damaging wind gusts (40 to 60 mph this afternoon and evening.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 03/30/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Qg_M7lCWzOTdvc2tgtoOLyGzdk-6gne_LhxjprEFlEzEwc9F_hrp8avvtoO4ulAtMWVdrvii= DYug0g8NlMd7hwv1wI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 40828361 40618083 39268057 38738137 38618264 38898430
40018520 40828361=20


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