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ACUS11 KWNS 222005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222005=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-222200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Mississippi and southeastern
Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...

Valid 222005Z - 222200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development remains possible inland of
coastal areas, across southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi into
the 4-6 PM CDT time frame. This may pose the risk for producing
tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...To the south of a mesoscale convective vortex migrating
northeast of Greenwood MS, rear inflow into the associated organized
convective system has contributed to an eastward acceleration of
outflow across much of northern and central Mississippi. The
southwestern flank of this outflow trails into the
Mississippi/Louisiana state border area, south of Natchez, where it
intersects a slower eastward advancing initial cold front, which
trails into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southeast of these
boundaries, a plume of seasonably moist boundary-layer air is
contributing to moderate mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1500-2000
J/kg, as far east as the southern Mississippi/Alabama border
vicinity.

Although stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent now appears to be
shifting northeastward, to the north of the Interstates 20/59
corridors (of central Mississippi/Alabama), much of the region
remains beneath broadly difluent and cyclonic mid-level flow. And
southerly low-level flow remains strong as far south as coastal
areas (including 50+ kt around 850 mb). This regime probably will
remain conducive to widely scattered discrete thunderstorm
development, in advance of the frontal convective band, with
occasional isolated supercells emerging, accompanied by the risk of
producing tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 03/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vgxqP_F-zV3vCE9-9BdOUpyCSsGurGnhyz8MFJTdetF9yJZKLANG_1Xc0JYVgstKG8z8-VyH$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 31458986 32048902 32258855 31468833 30608871 30238946
29728985 29379070 29709151 30539123 31109071 31458986=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 232227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232227=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-240030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Areas affected...parts of southern Indiana...central and southern Ohio...adjacent north central Kentucky...the northern West Virginia
Panhandle and southwestern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232227Z - 240030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong storms posing a risk
for mainly marginally severe hail and wind are possible through
around 8-10 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent along a slowly southward advancing
cold front has been sufficient to support the initiation of
scattered thunderstorm activity. This is occurring beneath the
northwestern periphery of large-scale mid/upper ridging, but
westerly flow aloft is quite strong and contributing to strong
deep-layer shear.=20

A narrow pre-frontal corridor has become at least weakly unstable
with mixed-layer CAPE up to around 500 J/kg, aided by modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates. This might support a couple of strong storms
which could eventually produce severe hail before convection weakens
as the boundary-layer instability wanes after dark. The potential
for localized strong surface gusts is a bit more unclear due to
generally moist low-level thermodynamic profiles with weak lapse
rates. However, some mixing down to the surface of stronger
westerly low-level flow (40-50 kt around 850 mb) appears possible
across southeastern Ohio into southwestern Pennsylvania.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-DC93A3hLgBqymVqse-00VjsW5S59IjkLH19J4uYtSxsd4jSs_8n8KK30C32h-_9v3kn9cbLN= 5b75firFo5k__oLyd0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON 38768671 39428491 39698400 39998241 40388036 39918021
39308098 39068300 38848433 38648633 38768671=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 300152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300152=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-300315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0852 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Areas affected...eastern iowa and northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 300152Z - 300315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening with
some hail possible.

DISCUSSION...A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening
from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. Instability was quite
limited on the 00Z DVN RAOB. However, continued warm air advection
has likely increased instability and moistened the column between
850 and 700mb over the past few hours. Therefore, despite the
minimal instability, the moderate isentropic ascent associated with
a ~40 knot low-level jet has proven sufficient for storms in the
region. Given the strong unidirectional shear in the cloud-bearing
layer, a few stronger storms with rotating updrafts are possible.
Some hail to near 1 inch is possible, but expect the majority of
hail to remain sub-severe. Isentropic ascent is expected to weaken
in the next few hours as 850-700mb flow veers. This should bring an
end to the marginal hail threat by late evening.

..Bentley/Goss.. 03/30/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8WNiz5zyNqMHMrfiOYVbOpzotutU58fFqFQmLuwzwCVrfScpEEI9bMT5OzmFAjCNgX94dX2Wh= Lq64W1dPZmNt3arMeQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON 41279313 41959246 42419107 42198898 41728788 40968764
40528833 40548968 40639156 40719245 40829282 41279313=20


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