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ACUS11 KWNS 221956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221956=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-222200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Areas affected...Western Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

Valid 221956Z - 222200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes
will continue into western Alabama this afternoon. The threat will
generally be greater in west-central Alabama where moisture/buoyancy
is greater.

DISCUSSION...Storms within central/eastern Mississippi have largely
remained linear this afternoon. There are some discrete cells ahead
of the the primary line. The most substantial of these discrete
storms is moving northeast through Kemper County, MS and has
recently shown a TDS on KDGX radar. The overall expectation is for
these cells to be overtaken by the line in the next 60-90 minutes.
Going forward, wind damage and QLCS tornadoes are expected to be the
primary threats as convection moves into western Alabama. The
environment ahead of the convective line has been able to warm to
near 80 F in several places. However, moisture return in Alabama has
been much less than in Mississippi. Consequently, MLCAPE values have
remained from 300-400 J/kg in northern Alabama to 500-700 in
west-central Alabama. Due to the forward speed of the line, it is
uncertain how much further destabilization can occur through the
afternoon. In any event, some potential for damaging wind gusts and
QLCS tornadoes will exist given the strong low-level winds and
low-level hodograph turning observed in region VWPs.

..Wendt.. 03/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!paYwhj1tPukK29-Jx3kac26hvMOD7v4vCCGM-YVToUumYm5slH2FZ8WkwIN5uV8jUrwfHvqZ$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 31168850 31768866 33088856 34248840 34918748 34938738
34798695 33288697 31418754 31098794 31168850=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 231946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231945=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-232115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeast Oklahoma...extreme northwest Arkansas...far southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 231945Z - 232115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms should gradually increase both ahead of and behind
the cold front through the afternoon and evening hours. A few of the
stronger storms may produce severe hail, with a damaging gust or
tornado possible with pre-frontal storms.

DISCUSSION...A subtle perturbation within the broader southwesterly
mid-level flow, evident via 19Z mesoanalysis, is approaching the
southern Plains from the NM/TX border area and is expected to
contribute to increasing upper support through the afternoon.
Simultaneously, boundary-layer warming/moistening is contributing to
increasing surface-based instability ahead of a southward-sagging
cold front. Mid 70s/upper 60s F surface temperatures/dewpoints,
overspread by 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates (evident via modified
observed 18Z regional soundings) are contributing to 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Though vertical wind profiles are largely unidirectional,
regional 18Z observed soundings and VADs show adequate speed shear
and associated elongated hodographs. As such, several storms may
become organized and sustained, with occasional bouts of mid-level
rotation possible.

Scattered multicells and transient supercells may develop in either
the pre- or post-cold frontal environment through the evening hours
as a 30+ kt 850 mb jet continues to advect rich moisture over the
Ozark Valley, with over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE likely. In either regime,
large hail will be the main threat. However, the stronger storms
with the greatest likelihood of very large hail and perhaps a severe
gust or tornado would be in northeast OK toward the AR border, where
storms may experience enough residence time ahead of the cold front
to take advantage of the relatively greater (surface-based)
buoyancy.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 03/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9VolViUddDZxWKauMfvTigqJam67YR-LDXIPbVUJSLsqd70N9SmUN72tTGmUBhJm2nhLhc8tT= egRutLfEKrPHjnWvm0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35539693 36409577 37069452 37209354 36989272 36639254
36209279 35799367 35419465 35289543 35209631 35539693=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 272022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272022=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-272215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Areas affected...northern FLORIDA Peninsula...southeastern
Georgia...eastern South Carolina...far southern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272022Z - 272215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase this afternoon with
potential for instances of severe hail and wind.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has begun in eastern Georgia
near a surface boundary that extends from the Carolinas southward
into the eastern Florida Panhandle. CAMs continue to suggest this=20 thunderstorm activity will increase into the afternoon, with
scattered thunderstorms expected across much of the region.
Afternoon heating has been slow, given mid-to upper level cloud
cover and slow eroding of stable air behind morning convection.
Surface objective analysis indicates MLCIN has weakened with around
500 J/kg MLCAPE across South Carolina into Georgia ahead of the
boundary. This trend is further confirmed by thunderstorm
development on radar.

Currently, deep layer shear is strongest across the northern Florida
Peninsula into southern Georgia. As the front shifts eastward this
afternoon, stronger mid-level flow will spread northward, with deep
layer shear increasing to the north as a result. This will support
potential for a few more robust thunderstorms with potential for
damaging winds and large hail. Given the slow air mass recovery and
potential for messy storm mode with multi-cell clusters, a watch is
unlikely to be needed this afternoon.

..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6gktayPA0IeFh8FgsQ6KJDxHoQr6Y0HJC2yWQ7KRGSr_tR2iZ9ebaABZkf3vJQ1Bm9XJ2dyPu= AgR30phLg5ItMRA7mE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 31138337 32258262 32988215 34258099 35118004 35207994
35057892 34787854 34447836 34237827 34057827 33567853
33117900 32538007 32188051 31928076 31518105 31358147
31158197 30938228 30708268 30408289 30138320 30128368
30278377 31138337=20


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