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ACUS11 KWNS 221657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221657=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-221900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Areas affected...Northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 221657Z - 221900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in potential for damaging winds and QLCS
tornadoes is expected through the afternoon. A watch will likely be
considered in the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Filtered sunshine through upper-level clouds has warmed temperatures into the upper 60s F across northern
Mississippi/Alabama. More importantly, dewpoints which began the day
in the 40s F have now risen into the low 50s F as the warm front has
continued to the north. Given the current northeastward speed of the
ongoing convection in western Mississippi, continued destabilization
should support on the order of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid/late
afternoon. Greater uncertainty in sufficient destabilization exists
in north-central into northwest Mississippi. A favorably timed
increase in the 850-700 mb winds will bring an attendant threat for
damaging wind gusts and QLCS-embedded circulations/tornadoes.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 03/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tGyNgjwHynpJ5fjnRBQl7NwNimUVPpSzeJpjHCThn-o1VDEbOJbLsUNf2u0EW5Pbo_ezj9PM$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33748858 33748949 33738984 33839022 34079016 34548991
34878949 35018887 35278795 35148734 34788664 34338653
34008687 33888745 33798832 33748858=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 222332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222331=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-230130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

Areas affected...north central Missouri into central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222331Z - 230130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms may begin to develop by
8-10 PM CDT, with a few posing a risk for large hail before storms
become more widespread while spreading east-northeast of the
Mississippi River later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Deepening convection is evident within a narrow
corridor just to the cool side of a quasi-stationary to slowly
southward advancing near-surface frontal zone (currently still to
the north of the Sedalia and Columbia vicinities east-northeastward
toward Springfield, IL). Low-level moisture within this zone may be contributing to most unstable CAPE up to around 1500 J/kg, beneath
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates. However, thermodynamic
profiles include a relatively warm/capping layer between 850-700 mb,
beneath building large-scale mid/upper ridging east of the southern
Rockies into the Appalachians.

There does appear to be a weak short wave perturbation progressing
into the crest of this mid-level ridging, across and east-northeast
of the lower Missouri Valley vicinity. And model output has been
suggestive that associated forcing for ascent and cooling through
the capping inversion may allow the initiation of scattered
thunderstorms as early as 01-03Z. This may be aided by radiational
cloud top cooling after dark.

As storms initiate, and before convection becomes increasingly
widespread, strong vertical shear within the convective layer may
contribute to a couple of supercell structures posing a risk to
produce large hail. Despite the proximity to the frontal zone,
given the rather rapid/sharp cooling to the north of the frontal
zone, the potential for strong surface gusts appears limited, even
as west-southwesterly 850 mb flow strengthens in excess of 40 kt by
late evening.

..Kerr.. 03/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!84btfRdOuReSGsBAb2xkTMU_Qyc5jygJGz7atj-nTwwoAf-4RMWFVie2wfStXV7_b3NJXNQa0= 48xvK5HzmCHtMg1Cs8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON 39809338 40608970 40418837 39898931 39539086 39129257
39029413 39809338=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 271754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271753=20
FLZ000-271900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Areas affected...portions of the central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271753Z - 271900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and
hail over the next hour.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms off the coast of the
Florida peninsula has shown an increase intensity as it moves
inland. Surface objective analysis would suggest that MLCIN is still
in place inland, though deep layer shear remains strong (45-50 kts).
More robust portions of this line may produce localized large hail
and damaging winds before it begins to weaken further inland.
Overall this threat should remain brief and as such a watch is not
likely to be needed.

..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7IEkjCJLsGliu-hIx3fXJleIu_foZSOR64NRv7CezWiQcoM0GiDgMGXtFPKHNcICrhBXHf5UL= 64X8SwDL353uX3c_Eo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 28908327 29238282 29368237 29398201 29358173 29188138
28988136 28788150 28648161 28558175 28338226 28188267
28118291 28148324 28278330 28448331 28908327=20


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