ACUS11 KWNS 101702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101701=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-102030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1670
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern VA and MD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101701Z - 102030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will spread eastward across the
Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. Strong to marginally
severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms. A watch is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convective development is underway along the
higher terrain in western VA this afternoon, primarily driven by
diurnal heating/mixing of a moist boundary layer amid minimal
convective inhibition. Ahead of this activity, visible satellite
imagery shows mostly clear skies and efficient diurnal heating along
and south of a quasi-stationary surface front draped from southern
NJ westward along the MD/PA border. While midlevel lapse rates are
poor across the warm sector, lower/middle 90s surface temperatures
amid lower/middle 70s dewpoints are contributing to a strongly
unstable airmass.=20

Generally weak deep-layer flow/shear will limit overall convective
organization as it spreads eastward through the afternoon, though
15-20 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 2-4-km layer and deep
tropospheric moisture (1.9-2.0 PW per GOES-16 derived PW) should
support water-loaded downdrafts with strong to marginally severe
gusts of 40-60 mph in the strongest cores. This will especially be
the case where any localized clustering of storms occur. Given the
weak large-scale ascent and limited vertical wind shear/anticipated
convective organization, a watch is not expected.

..Weinman/Hart.. 08/10/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4jL5PMGnxwJY_LRaq8XFQJOP35TDdVLy1sZingkfFa0zC4Yv2cW0ebe4XK_StJEzBDA0kFrv1= lStkyZhH460pDRcNT0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37027626 36987766 37227829 37617894 38657878 39157858
39507817 39597746 39497643 39307608 38907587 37977573
37657575 37327596 37027626=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 212048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212048=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-212245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1670
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...Eastern NY into parts of New England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534...

Valid 212048Z - 212245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind and hail will
continue late this afternoon into part of the evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon
across parts of CT and western MA into VT and southern NH, in and
near WW 534. However, storms have generally struggled to intensify
thus far, despite the presence of moderate buoyancy and marginally
favorable deep-layer shear. Weak midlevel lapse rates have likely
limited updraft intensity, but a few storms have recently
strengthened across parts of MA/VT into southern NH. Marginal
supercell structures will remain possible into early evening, with a
threat of isolated damaging wind and hail, and possibly a brief
tornado. A somewhat greater damaging-wind threat could evolve if
some modestly organized upscale growth occurs, but this scenario is
more uncertain.=20

Additional storms may move into the region from eastern New York, as
the primary cold front approaches. Depending on the extent of
remaining instability in the wake of earlier convection, these later
storms could also pose an isolated severe threat into at least part
of the evening.

..Dean.. 07/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6bcByc7tehoCPLLUS2PcA9j4HvWz7j56l6QFSYZT8zNobg5PIfTPmXV59f-nTOG6EMmrfIUNs= oEba19GUoPxXonBhfA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 41317426 44067341 44247284 43757201 43307148 41837183
41397191 41057359 41317426=20


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