ACUS11 KWNS 091751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091751=20
ORZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-092115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central OR...far northeast CA...and far
northwest NV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091751Z - 092115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated large hail and locally severe gusts
will gradually increase through the afternoon. A watch is not
currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a mid/upper-level low off the coast of
northern CA, a belt of deep/enhanced meridional flow (sampled by
regional 12z soundings) will continue overspreading northern CA into south-central OR this afternoon. Recent water vapor imagery showed a
subtle embedded midlevel impulse moving northward across the area,
which combined with sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy has
resulted in an uptick in shallow convection along the higher terrain
in OR. Currently, lingering low-level inhibition and minimal
buoyancy are limiting updraft intensity, though isolated small hail
and locally strong gusts are still possible with this activity.

Behind this initial uptick in convection, diurnal heating/mixing
beneath a plume of modest midlevel lapse rates should contribute to
moderate surface-based instability by this afternoon, though ongoing
activity casts uncertainty on overall boundary-layer recovery
(especially over parts of OR along the Cascades). Nevertheless, if
an additional uptick in diurnally enhanced convection can intercept
pockets of surface-based inflow, 40-50 kt effective shear --
characterized by a long/generally straight hodograph -- would
support splitting supercell structures and locally organized
clusters. Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts may accompany
any persistent rotating updrafts or organized clusters, though the
threat appears too localized for a watch.

..Weinman/Hart.. 08/09/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!88zcOMF0c_Nhe8liWUQIaj_nhoA2LuhVTJDbf7Iz7gO6OgGNlc0FfTSZhN_woK8tQ6GMaXrvk= 6B_yKccJQM0vC2sXrI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...PQR...

LAT...LON 42301812 41721828 41131887 40861978 41062044 41962083
42782154 43462208 43872223 44552227 44912216 45112174
45182055 44911942 44431864 43801827 42761806 42301812=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 212025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212025=20
NMZ000-COZ000-212200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northeast/east-central NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 212025Z - 212200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of large hail and localized
severe gusts may evolve late this afternoon. Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Low-level easterly flow is transporting modest
low-level moisture toward the higher terrain of northeast NM, and
thunderstorms have recently developed to the west/southwest of the
Raton vicinity. Instability and deep-layer shear are both somewhat
weaker compared to some recent days, but MLCAPE may increase to near
1000 J/kg by late afternoon, while modest northwesterly midlevel
flow may support sufficient effective shear for marginal supercell
structures. Large hail will likely be the primary initial threat,
though some threat for severe gusts may evolve with time.=20

Coverage of the severe threat remains somewhat uncertain, but with
the potential for a couple of supercells, watch issuance is possible
later this afternoon.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5kXvvJ2cXS7mSM_9YKIHOPo4uVN5qIuaNQavaJujtDRwZC9AWsgJBYBsPHM1mg1NYjoVe6eNR= F0rOwEOg7qsyrYIiDc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36330316 34830320 34420369 34340436 34410497 34720548
35000576 35550590 36110564 36490550 37050488 37080415
36840343 36330316=20


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