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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1665

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, August 07, 2022 22:03:54
    ACUS11 KWNS 072203
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072203=20
    AZZ000-080000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1665
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0503 PM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

    Areas affected...portions of central Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 072203Z - 080000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts and perhaps some small hail may
    accompany the stronger pulse storms through the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Pulse thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage
    and intensity over the past hour or so across central AZ per MRMS
    mosaic radar imagery. Afternoon peak heating has encouraged the
    mixing of the boundary layer up to 600 mb (per 20Z RAP forecast
    soundings), supporting 8+ C/km 0-3 km lapse rates. This relatively
    dry boundary layer is also overspread by 7 C/km mid-level lapse
    rates (per 21Z mesoanalysis), which is contributing up to 1500 J/kg
    MLCAPE. These storms have developed off of the higher terrain and
    are gradually propagating southward in an environment characterized
    by rich monsoonal mid-level moisture and precipitable water values
    approaching 1.5 inches. Given the mid-level moisture atop the dry
    boundary layer, DCAPE is approaching 1000 J/kg in spots, which may
    support a couple of severe gusts with the stronger downbursts. While tropospheric shear is weak overall across the Southwest, 15 kts of
    500 mb easterly flow, evident via the TUS 18Z observed sounding and
    21Z mesoanalysis, may assist in some convective propagation and
    perhaps loose organization across the desert floor this evening.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/07/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9913LGuvLif0P6QeY7CrvoCvp8Xas0SxhDSdrHA-HhLRRRcCnGayGnD-6EslQIZTEErClbsy5= bSupvyi49b3JABX36U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 33931349 34451313 34531219 34331125 34011053 33621033
    33111016 32821007 31891046 31571083 31471119 31501167
    31911291 32321329 32981347 33931349=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 21, 2023 17:17:48
    ACUS11 KWNS 211717
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211717=20
    TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-211815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1665
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

    Areas affected...Central Arkansas...northeastern
    Mississippi...southwestern Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 211717Z - 211815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat increasing. Area is being monitored
    for Severe Thunderstorm Watch potential.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery showed intensification in a bowing
    line of storms moving through northern Arkansas. A 55 mph wind gusts
    was recorded at the Searcy Municipal Airport outside of Searcy, AR.
    This coincides well with an area of enhanced wind (50-55 kts)
    observed just off the surface on radar from KLZK. Several storm
    mergers have since occurred within the apex of this bow but the
    recent radar observations indicate a region of 50-60 kts aloft
    around 2500-3000 kft. The line continues to move along a gradient of
    MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg. The continued favorable wind signal in
    radar in combination with an increase in forward propagation of the
    line does raise some concern for downstream wind risk. In addition,
    agitated cu has developed across portions of southwestern Tennessee
    with the potential for further development ahead of this line of
    storms.

    ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7O9XdGLXbB8ELR9_04IOskQ0CuGOBaAOkLLVQZ5HZI9DiFIjwRFNrLyc2r_XBVIQs_zzpbhfb= 9NpQVetxg7z7VSCtHc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35089188 35459195 35739188 35949173 36099164 36139146
    36139133 36029102 35779059 35709043 35629019 35478985
    35178950 34978953 34928957 34848964 34499013 34199042
    34109065 34159088 34259110 34449125 34639142 34839163
    34969179 35089188=20


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