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ACUS11 KWNS 220901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220900=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-221100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0306
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
Areas affected...Portions of coastal/east TX into western/northern
LA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 58...59...
Valid 220900Z - 221100Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58, 59 continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues early this morning.
DISCUSSION...A slow moving and expansive squall line is ongoing at
09Z from parts of the middle TX Coast region northeastward into
northern LA. The overall line is making only modest eastward
progress, as strong southerly flow at low levels and enhanced south-southwesterly winds at mid levels encourage cells within the
line to move generally northeastward. A reservoir of rich surface
dewpoints is still present ahead of the line across coastal/east TX
into western and north-central LA. A generally uninhibited boundary
layer with MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg should continue to
support surface-based storms. It does appear that the northern
portion of the line is being mostly undercut by its own outflow. The
best severe potential in the near term may be focused across parts
of the middle TX Coast, where more cellular convection has recently
formed. This activity is probably related to ascent associated with
an embedded mid-level vorticity lobe ejecting over south TX. Current expectations are for an isolated severe hail and damaging wind
threat to persist for the next couple of hours, especially with any
cells that can remain at least semi-discrete ahead of the line. A
brief tornado may also occur given the strength of the low-level
flow, particularly over parts of east TX into LA where greater 0-1
km SRH is present.
..Gleason.. 03/22/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!osKYZ9AWzwH-1b-pvWL7nl3OIqAzqF3GpWOEuWXy0WXhtRDrWgsy4xs-o0MhR5aIbjKsGXtk$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28749794 30009674 31619473 32999282 32979213 32719209
31229356 30799420 28919610 28509758 28749794=20
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