ACUS11 KWNS 062220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062219=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-070015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022

Areas affected...Upper Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 062219Z - 070015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convection is expected over the next
several hours. Wind is the most likely threat with this activity.

DISCUSSION...Remnants of early-day MCS that spread across the upper
MS Valley have progressed into northern WI. Scattered convection
trails along the southwestern flank of this longer-lived activity
across southern MN into northwestern IA where some increase in
updraft strength is currently noted over Palo Alto County IA. While
the primary short-wave trough has ejected northeast of this region,
stalled surface boundary draped from near EAU-RST-AXA will likely
provide the focus for potential robust convection this evening.
Given the lack of large-scale support, nocturnal increase in LLJ
into this boundary after sunset is expected to aid an
upward-evolving complex of storms that will likely propagate toward
southwest WI.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 08/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_kUoZPtlJIxExE9PqMbbbnMMOIeM7fEx_jmR2JH1qE_tnsE0XyhO3GEwuaPY7iZ9hR6cjGjhE= LO5w4Id3KZ271jg8Nk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 43459473 44499224 44449068 42989076 42679339 42399503
43459473=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 210920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210919=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-211045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast OK...Far Northwest
AR...Extreme Southwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531...

Valid 210919Z - 211045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts will likely continue as the line
progresses through northeast OK. A new watch will be needed by 10Z.

DISCUSSION...Surface observation at END recently reported a 73 kt
gust as the well-organized convective line move through. This gust
is consistent with recent radar data indicating outbound velocities
approaching 80 kt around 2 kft. Echo tops have also recently
increased as a pair of stronger updrafts developed within the line.
This increase in intensity may be a result of favorable warm-air
advection associated with the east-west frontal zone extended across
OK and/or modestly increased buoyancy resulting from more low-level
moisture. Given these recent trends, expectation is for the damaging
wind threat to extend into more of northeastern OK, and perhaps
extreme southwest MO/far northwest AR, with a downstream watch
likely needed before 10Z.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 07/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9pqaDlDilZxNnOjqU-4-yEoYkt76-ke-bfvG5Ovnc9xme-8fTaIHIXHkel5M-7lg1Q-cD4Ls3= _pGhhVGeEWFZ1yG-PM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 36989832 36749432 35299421 35499678 35949869 36989832=20


=3D =3D =3D
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