ACUS11 KWNS 060023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060022=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-060145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1658
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 PM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Areas affected...Northern Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517...

Valid 060022Z - 060145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across the entire watch region.

DISCUSSION...Convection that developed due to strong surface heating
has gradually expanded in areal coverage along/near surface boundary
draped across ww517. This activity is rooted within the boundary
layer along an instability axis that continues to favor new updrafts
forming along the wind shift. Over the last half hour or so,
scattered convection has gradually increased northeast of FAR where
low-level warm advection is a bit stronger along the northeastern
plume of steepest low-level lapse rates. In the absence of strong
large-scale support aloft, it appears convection will struggle to
move appreciably east of the primary instability reservoir. However,
with time, a gradually expanding elongated zone of strong/severe
thunderstorms should advance across ww517.

..Darrow.. 08/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!72zqXDGTG7ksy7848TlfAdiYDWZPH9-Z9e3hagBl3fwMXPZp8LnBLMfE84TgHa521S-913-CF= oL9cV_ZovFNz-QGsbY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 43200226 47119717 47099458 43229988 43200226=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 210411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210410=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-210615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1658
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...much of southwest Kansas...parts of the
Panhandles...and much of northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 210410Z - 210615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for scattered severe winds and isolated large
hail is forecast to persist tonight from the Oklahoma Panhandle and
southwest Kansas southeastward into north-central Oklahoma. A
replacement watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...A mixture of supercells and bowing structures persists
over far western KS where severe gusts have been measured, despite
the rain-cooled surface air mass. Southwest of there, a pair of
supercells is now entering the OK Panhandle, and will likely cross
into TX producing large hail and damaging winds.

Modest midlevel flow on the order of 35 kt exists across the area,
with winds in the lowest 2 km averaging 20 kt out of the east. The
air mass remains moist and unstable, and this directional shear
should aid a continued east/southeastward propagation of these storm
systems.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 07/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-g10YtD1Vg138EubUs7gxVnCBWbnzyJKhZ4KEQSTnPuq65inoGvn0Dg7NHUTv6J7yI9Shh-hb= gsNMnWtLheYvqaelcQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 36760263 36860238 37030193 37350167 37570151 38030124
38330112 38400061 38159969 37729847 37269715 37019690
36629687 36259699 35979738 35849796 35819865 35830010
35870149 35960219 36760263=20


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