ACUS11 KWNS 051712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051711=20
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-051915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022

Areas affected...southwest and western VA...southeast WV...northeast TN...northwest NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051711Z - 051915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated gusts 45-60 mph are possible and these gusts will
likely be capable of localized pockets of wind damage.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows thunderstorms
developing over the past hour near the ridge tops of the
Appalachians. Surface conditions show temperatures warming through
the upper 80s in the low elevations with dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Continued heating will further steepen low-level lapse rates as
temperatures warm into the 90s.=20=20

NAM forecast soundings indicate 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is present
over southwest and western VA and surrounding states. This buoyancy
magnitude appears to be adequately depicted based on midday surface observations compared to the RAP-based SPC Objective Analysis
(1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). With PW 1.75 to 2 inches, ample
water-loading potential is evident. The steepening of 0-3 km lapse
rates in excess of 8 deg C/km will favor strong gust potential. A
weak tropospheric wind profile will favor slow-moving, pulse-like
storms. Isolated to widely scattered strong gusts 45-55 mph are
probable with the stronger cores (locally up to around 60 mph) with
pockets of wind damage the likely result.

..Smith/Hart.. 08/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9OD3LEG_zkCGXtLxKqFu-DAdjY7dQUO8A5jcn7NucJtT_MRa-XF_j18TK65DaSgCUjjJLM6OO= KLIzdZ7oPVTUWxKzHM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON 36938205 37788098 39397883 39407824 39127786 38637788
37007916 35788167 35838209 36188227 36938205=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 202350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202349=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-210145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...far southwest
Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle...far northern Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526...527...

Valid 202349Z - 210145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526, 527
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts, some significant, will become more likely
into the early evening as upscale growth continues in southeast
Colorado.

DISCUSSION...Three supercells northeast of Pueblo are in the process
of interacting/merging with convection that has moved northeastward
off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This activity is expected to
move into the surface theta-e axes in southeast Colorado into parts
of the combined Panhandles. This corridor will be favored for severe
wind gusts over the next few hours. Some of these wind gusts could
exceed 75 mph. A surface boundary plus outflow from earlier intense
convection in southwest Kansas should be an approximate northern
delimiter of the greater gust threat.

..Wendt.. 07/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9rYjmMZ7zerImVm6DaITdzpVzhujB5dX2oc87fpf68uyzgYknDcaTTqkLvaB-GwQvXiTWmggW= CeE5fepzIyOPCXWys4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 37350344 37820372 38350345 38500323 38520277 38210205
38030143 37770057 37560022 37180005 36760019 36560043
36500073 36650163 36880252 37350344=20


=3D =3D =3D
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