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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1649

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, August 04, 2022 16:59:27
    ACUS11 KWNS 041659
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041658=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-041900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1649
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1158 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern OH...western PA...northern
    WV Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 041658Z - 041900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts are
    possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage and
    intensity early this afternoon, along and ahead of a weak surface
    boundary draped from northern OH into northwest PA. With deep-layer
    shear expected to remain weak, convection is expected to remain
    relatively disorganized. However, as MLCAPE increases into the
    1500-2000 J/kg range and low-level lapse rates steepen with time,
    the strongest cells/clusters may be capable of producing isolated
    damaging wind as they spread northeastward this afternoon. Watch
    issuance is not expected at this time.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 08/04/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Z-tDxK6bnrQhf1O58AGloBy4oEs-BBSrMQvGvcZoMhxd-Lx6KR3gCsWRoSW6mqXM-lfiX-Wu= Gv9gZhFU6PiJfMv310$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 40348335 40848174 41368018 41767927 41147927 40028049
    39708171 39658264 39688299 39848355 40138366 40348335=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 20, 2023 20:57:17
    ACUS11 KWNS 202057
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202056=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-202230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1649
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0356 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of western NY...western PA...and far eastern
    OH

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 202056Z - 202230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of severe winds will increase in the next few
    hours as an organized MCS overspreads the area from the west. A
    watch issuance is likely for parts of the area in the next hour or
    so.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar data from KDTX depicts a well-organized
    bowing MCS tracking eastward at around 40 kt in Ontario -- where a
    recent 63-kt gust was measured. Ahead of the MCS, antecedent diurnal
    heating of a relatively moist air mass (generally lower/middle 60s
    dewpoints) has contributed to weak/moderate surface-based
    instability -- with the greater instability confined to western PA
    and eastern OH (see 20Z observed PIT and 19Z BUF soundings). 40-50
    kt midlevel winds should support continued convective organization
    as it crosses Lake Erie and approaches western NY, eastern OH, and
    western PA -- with a risk of severe winds during the next few hours.
    While there is some uncertainty on how intense the northern portion
    of the line will be given less instability farther north, the
    well-established cold pool and favorable deep-layer shear will still
    pose a risk of severe outflow winds. A watch will likely be issued
    in the next hour or so.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7aOCzHgWJ8qcxuIGiN_PrlZ340PwiZxPv_1bQU1cULoXJNZgLjgV32hlUZvvqtBgqQvQj7wAO= pdDnUvIZJ_YoFzVm4M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 41018093 41438034 41777990 42277963 42717940 43077923
    43357902 43467833 43397673 43197649 42297671 41617709
    41107755 40547849 40197938 40007998 39918060 39968119
    40208158 40518157 40738134 41018093=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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