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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1646

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 03, 2022 22:46:19
    ACUS11 KWNS 032246
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032245=20
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-040015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1646
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0545 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of southeast Lower Michigan...extreme
    northwest Ohio...much of central Indiana...southern
    Illinois...southeast Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...515...516...

    Valid 032245Z - 040015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514, 515,
    516 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watches 514, 515, and 516. Damaging gusts are the main threat with
    stronger storms embedded in the line. The severe threat is expected
    to gradually wane after sunset. Local WW extensions may be
    necessary.

    DISCUSSION...A loosely organized squall line, extending roughly from
    Detroit, MI to areas south of St. Louis, MO, continues to propagate east-southeast amid a very unstable airmass (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE per
    22Z mesoanalysis). In the absence of stronger upper flow, shear and
    deep-layer ascent, the squall line persists eastward by means of
    cold pool propagation into a well-mixed boundary layer (90 F surface temperatures overspread by 7 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates). As such,
    damaging gusts will continue to accompany the more pronounced line
    segments where locally stronger cold pool(s) can continue to
    interact with the heated/mixed boundary layer. However, nocturnal
    cooling after sunset should support effective cold pool weakening
    and a waning of the severe threat. Until then, locally stronger
    portions of the squall line may propagate outside of the ongoing WWs
    before sunset, and local watch extensions may be needed.

    ..Squitieri.. 08/03/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-h60PNU2YeBHtUDPHw3rMlKASQS6q-xH1huFsRNoewBBKEHNBZDIy3EF9qDu9gAHzZVCg4gzU= W4iEc9WR0oqQwbDayY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 37459093 38858915 40598602 41678452 42148383 42168333
    41728306 41218331 40648383 39988477 39298579 37918801
    37368960 37459093=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 20, 2023 18:52:43
    ACUS11 KWNS 201852
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201851=20
    MIZ000-202015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1646
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0151 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

    Areas affected...Southeastern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522...

    Valid 201851Z - 202015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk of severe winds and isolated large hail is
    spreading east-southeastward into southeastern Lower Michigan this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KDTX shows a
    northeast-southwest-oriented QLCS tracking east-southeastward at
    around 40 kt across southeastern Lower Michigan -- with additional
    supercell development immediately ahead of the line. Continued
    diurnal destabilization across the pre-convective environment
    (characterized by increasingly agitated HCRs) will support the
    maintenance of the line given around 45 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented
    oblique to the gust front (per KDTX VWP). Severe gusts up to 70 mph
    are the main concern, though isolated large hail is possible with
    the leading supercells and where breaks in the convective line
    occur. Additionally, VWP data shows modest low-level hodograph
    curvature (around 200 m2/s2 0-2 km SRH) which could support embedded
    rotating updrafts and a non-zero tornado risk.

    ..Weinman.. 07/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5CjVMxIj8tXR_BIFgQsUG2-wPZBoUHYNIAl0cj_4dzDULtmK2e3tTr5z-yJvOYpUWqeNb3Qns= 7gvYeKT8dXWmV2k7Ts$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 42338480 42588447 43078386 43368364 43398359 43428322
    43428276 43268237 42858234 42378268 41838326 41738364
    41758414 41848459 41968502 42078513 42338480=20


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