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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1645

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 03, 2022 20:43:47
    ACUS11 KWNS 032043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032043=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-032215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1645
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0343 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022

    Areas affected...portions of Missouri and Illinois

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515...

    Valid 032043Z - 032215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts continues across WW515.
    Additional development across southern MO should continue into this
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered
    to numerous thunderstorms ongoing from central IL into eastern MO.
    While a few stronger storms have been noted over the last 90
    minutes, overall storm organization has been limited. Owing to the
    very weak vertical shear (less than 20 kt) evident on area VAD/VWPs,
    damaging gusts have mostly been confined to isolated stronger
    downdrafts within small storm clusters. However, as storm clusters
    gradually congeal into more linear arrangements this afternoon and
    evening, a locally greater risk for damaging wind may evolve across
    portions of eastern IL and far western IN. Thus, the severe risk for
    damaging winds is expected to continue.

    Farther south and west across MO, storm initiation has been slower
    due to lingering cloud cover and weaker forcing for ascent. Recent
    lightning data has however shown an increase over the last hour
    suggesting storms are beginning to strengthen. Additional storm development/maturation appears likely into this evening as the
    airmass remains very unstable (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and minimally
    inhibited. Recent HRRR runs do hint at some clustering suggesting
    isolated damaging wind potential. However, it remains unclear how
    far south and west the severe threat will develop. Should further
    development result in outflow mergers and clustering of additional
    storms, a locally greater risk for damaging wind gusts may develop
    later this evening toward eastern MO and the MS River.

    ..Lyons.. 08/03/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!90Il9TD0juIHkZqqp-fuMbQfDOQTzlSkYHk-4GyMSFLEnBIsPmBPC1jNukXNtGuJrmKWx7qXx= 1HuPs3pPzuez9pwOSo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 36559283 37469316 37919307 38319293 38619259 39149182
    39419116 39908983 40328894 40608840 40788757 40718715
    40598676 40508672 40308676 40098694 39588751 39138809
    38518884 37568999 37199054 36949115 36679163 36529196
    36559283=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 20, 2023 18:47:13
    ACUS11 KWNS 201847
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201846=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-202015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1645
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0146 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

    Areas affected...Middle/eastern TN into northern AL...north
    GA...Upstate SC

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523...

    Valid 201846Z - 202015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will spread southeastward with
    time. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A bowing storm cluster with a history of damaging wind
    is moving southeastward east of Nashville, with recent vigorous
    development noted southeast of this cluster into southern middle and
    eastern TN, and increasing cumulus noted along the southwest flank.
    The background environment remains supportive of organized
    convection near and to the warm side of an outflow-reinforced
    surface boundary, with rich low-level moisture, MLCAPE in excess of
    2000 J/kg, and sufficient deep-layer shear.=20

    Isolated hail and maybe a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any
    stronger discrete cell, but the damaging winds are expected to
    remain the primary threat. The ongoing bowing segment may continue
    to move southeastward near the surface boundary, with additional
    damaging-wind producing clusters possible as new development matures
    this afternoon. As a result, downstream watch issuance may be needed
    across parts of northern AL/GA and potentially into upstate SC.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 07/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7_jOcepH7kdOpY-GRi6nl2wKnlujiTSGwLtlJ3TFtrSRfK3O1jyeXGtzK-alZFcllF6IiZ5EM= 2IFFrAghB3Z6MAz9GI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

    LAT...LON 33988425 34518663 34878783 35468782 35838718 36318611
    35098436 34718303 34548213 34148166 33778193 33488223
    33988425=20


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