ACUS11 KWNS 030220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030219=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-030315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Areas affected...Southeast SD...Southwest MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511...

Valid 030219Z - 030315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511
continues.

SUMMARY...Gusty winds remain a threat for the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...High-based convection that developed within a very hot
air mass over south-central SD early this evening has progressed to
near the SD/MN border. Winds have recently gusted to 54kt at HON but
this activity is progressing into a much cooler/weakening lapse-rate
boundary layer that may become less supportive of downdrafts. Latest
radar data suggests the gust front is racing well ahead of the
convective line and it will spread into southwest MN within the
hour. Latest thinking is the main severe wind threat has peaked and
damaging winds will become more local over the next hour or so.

..Darrow.. 08/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4P85ym6OnMBK0Xi5h3KRcV9wDdG-gAuwITCn5NOOzVPHgVeDMw1BXga-SpI958cJhiQXdRGTb= 2bH_BsOPcJDJaZ0Evo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 43569725 44729714 44809599 43619614 43569725=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 192217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192217=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-192345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...Northern into central Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518...520...

Valid 192217Z - 192345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518, 520
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail will remain a threat for the remainder of the
afternoon. Very large hail would be possible with the most organized supercells. Storm coverage is expected to increase in northwestern
Wisconsin and parts of central Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...Storm coverage and intensity has been greatest over
northern Minnesota into the Duluth vicinity. Large-scale ascent with
the trough has helped to sustain convection that has produced
several large hail reports as well as a 2.5 inch report in Itasca
county. Currently, the strongest storms are moving into northwest
Wisconsin. MRMS MESH data suggest large hail is probable with these
storms. Activity has been more isolated in parts of central
Minnesota. This may be due in part to dry low levels and entrainment
as well as veered surface winds and weak convergence. However, with
mid-level ascent increasing in this area, intensification of this
activity is possible as it tracks southeastward to near the Twin
Cities. The eastward extent of the threat will probably remain
limited to due to influences from cloud cover lasting into the
afternoon. Stable billow clouds are still evident on visible
satellite.

..Wendt.. 07/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_gEcIFknEjBj1h155diiMceWhKmyYA8xYTySlcNT_MIGaBsRISg_A7jrXliZbj5oCtikxWgDv= 7esHYCJQ31qEWme6F4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 45079082 44479286 44349372 44379433 44549485 44779534
44879542 45179564 45459547 45609534 45949471 46349393
47039385 47399404 47879476 48419475 48629405 48569353
48199272 46719097 46219039 45339064 45159079 45079082=20


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