ACUS11 KWNS 021741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021741=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-021845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Areas affected...northern Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021741Z - 021845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail will be possible with elevated storms early
this afternoon. A weather watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 1730 UTC, regional radar showed isolated
thunderstorms developing along and north of a warm front across
portions of northern MN and WI. Driven predominately by warm
advection, these storms are rooted above the surface with unstable
parcels near 850 mb. Model soundings show 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
along with 40-50 kt of effective shear within northwesterly flow
aloft. Some organization potential into elevated supercell
structures is possible given the favorable CAPE/shear overlap.
Isolated marginally severe hail will be the primary risk given the
relatively isolated nature of storms and favorable deep-layer shear.
However, the marginal buoyancy/mid-level lapse rates should limit
updraft strength and hail production. Storms should gradually weaken
as they drift eastward away from the frontal zone and ascent. While
isolated instances of hail will remain possible through this
afternoon, the limited potential for more organized severe storms
suggests a watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Grams.. 08/02/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9klnPdubj-J-trU0gQnpJvmY2ZVrSBvLv7DSt3_kfXRJjn1sbO6l48tpR2BwPNPfjUxKVA62E= aDrJ3xR7SUTqfahPOs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON 48399399 48569491 48489559 48259581 47949606 47599562
47089475 46779398 46529289 46259222 46319103 46689064
46929067 47069110 47249178 47499238 47899328 48399399=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 192017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192017=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-192145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...Southern Minnesota and far west-central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192017Z - 192145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for supercells capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts may materialize this afternoon/evening. A watch
may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Continued heating across southern Minnesota has
gradually weakened convective inhibition this afternoon. Over the
last 30 minutes, visible satellite shows deeper cumulus starting to
develop, likely in response to ascent from the approaching mid-level
shortwave trough. This increased ascent, combined with 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE and expectation of some additional heating, could provide
ample buoyancy/lift for thunderstorm development in the next 1 to 2
hours. However, dewpoints have also started to decrease across
western Minnesota in response to deeper mixing which could be a
limiting factor to greater storm coverage. Strong mid-level flow (60
knots per FSD VWP) will provide ample shear for supercells, some
capable of 2+ inch hail. Additionally, an ongoing left-moving
supercell across east-central South Dakota may continue east across
southern Minnesota given moderate instability and a long/straight
hodograph. The combination of this potential and the potential for
additional scattered storm development may necessitate a severe
thunderstorm watch or watch extension later this afternoon.

..Bentley/Hart.. 07/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9piY74BCuBIixmu9D8hlkzukVgByjahyZbzsL-YUIySt8ASA3gim8uynrus3SD2mej-_s0kZ-= uzPeZd-tdHJ5q5Wc-g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 43589480 43659542 44099632 44759641 45669632 46099591
46339464 46019241 44669123 43809128 43589253 43629373
43589480=20


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