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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1620

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 31, 2022 20:35:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 312035
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312035=20
    AZZ000-312230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1620
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

    Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 312035Z - 312230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should continue to propagate
    northwest with a risk for isolated damaging outflow gusts this
    afternoon. Severe potential is expected to remain localized and a
    weather watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
    cluster of multi-cell thunderstorms ongoing across southern AZ near
    the international border. Rich monsoon moisture (surface dewpoints
    in the mid to upper 60s F) and warm temperatures are contributing to
    1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE estimated from the modified 18z Tucson, AZ
    RAOB. While buoyancy will remain favorable for strong updrafts, area
    VAD/VWPs show vertical shear is weak, generally less than 25 kt. The
    limited shear should favor a multi-cell storm mode with limited
    organization potential. Though a few stronger downdrafts may emerge
    given the relatively evaporative cooling within the dry low-levels
    and coalescing outflow. Additional storm development along the
    flanks of the current cluster and off of the higher terrain farther
    southeast may also pose an isolated damaging wind risk into this
    evening. However, given the lack of greater storm organization
    potential, a weather watch is not expected.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 07/31/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8P8h2Re1jt6jY9M_OEF8BMLVTVWyZ_hHJSdUXbqb1Z5CsJYEvmjzLt4DKQ7u7D2ZKs3r433PB= FO6_LbktEEryWbIn2Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 32151373 33231333 33651284 33941234 34001196 33771166
    33201124 32831077 32431022 32341000 31960982 31640971
    31380971 31240971 31261106 31351146 31551202 32151373=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 18, 2023 21:30:03
    ACUS11 KWNS 182129
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182129=20
    TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-190000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1620
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0429 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

    Areas affected...far western Tennessee...northeast Arkanas...and
    northern Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 182129Z - 190000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...At least isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail will
    remain possible for a few more hours, and a new watch is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Radar shows a decelerating outflow boundary extending
    from extreme northeast AR to just northeast of the Memphis TN area.
    Recent trends indicate strengthening storms on the southern
    fringe/outflow of the southeast MO MCS, with impressive echo IR
    presentation. Surface analysis confirms a very moist and unstable
    air mass remains in place south of the AR activity and west of the
    TN outflow, with dewpoints approaching 80 F in spots. Given the
    uncapped air mass and robust convection now ongoing over northeast
    AR, a new watch will likely be issued downstream extending into
    parts of western TN and northern MS.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 07/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_jCE2sszLp85C1Pus03FJsPERVu5L-xFekacICaKjG4mHupq-OWXCXlYJzQAL94VvgJ9CpilO= ZwpZcnDJU1_25afBPA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35999133 35959060 35938999 35878980 35768951 35438910
    35178843 34798820 34428837 34228879 34328973 34579039
    35029085 35589130 35999133=20


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