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ACUS11 KWNS 220207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220207=20
ARZ000-220300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Areas affected...Western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 220207Z - 220300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch may be necessary for portions of
western Arkansas just north of Tornado Watch 056.

DISCUSSION...Very strong LLJ (65kt) is currently located along the
OK/AR border, aided in large part by the approaching mid-level jet.
Organized squall line has matured and is advancing east across
southeast OK at roughly 35kt. 00z soundings from LZK and SHV
exhibited only modest elevated instability as surface dew points
remain mostly in the 50s across western AR. Even so, strong shear
will likely contribute to this linear MCS propagating across western
AR where some threat for locally damaging winds and perhaps
marginally severe hail can be anticipated. If this squall line
remains organized over the next hour a severe thunderstorm watch may
be warranted.

..Darrow/Edwards.. 03/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q_hU49brBwk9pBqwnjkZh8gz0jzR4VFYFsir7ELEw6SKJcLvCwwXY3qnORMA6k0mcQFYVw8J$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 35479421 34859222 33909245 34399440 35479421=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 170307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170306=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-170430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...Parts of east TX into western LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...

Valid 170306Z - 170430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging winds and a tornado or two
continues. A small downstream watch may be required.

DISCUSSION...At 03Z, a QLCS continues to evolve along a strong cold
front, with an embedded long-lived supercell over Rusk County, TX.
Some modest destabilization has occurred downstream with MLCAPE
around 500 J/kg, and the KSHV VWP continues to show 0-1 km SRH of
greater than 250 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear greater than 50 kt. This
will favor a continuation of the severe threat downstream, with the
greatest near-term threat expected along the QLCS segment with the
embedded supercell. As that portion of the line moves southeastward,
a threat for damaging wind and a tornado or two will continue, and
potentially move out of WW 69. This may necessitate new downstream
watch issuance within the hour.

..Dean/Bunting.. 03/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_E4O7QrUB2-SDEXzJQ3Tx47tvVj1ZUj-hZigy2WIq2LoXIBEHAQrOtoZqJ5rEhU1GoqbV49au= DGaL-VwMIHoYzQ-2EQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31929536 32729405 32179292 31699264 31209262 30879292
30909361 31369452 31669501 31929536=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 250326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250325=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-250830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Areas affected...Central Plains

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 250325Z - 250830Z

SUMMARY...Snow rates should increase across portions of the central
Plains tonight, possibly approaching 1 inch per hour.

DISCUSSION...Latest water-vapor imagery/model data suggest midlevel
low is located along the southeast CO/NM border. This feature is
ejecting east toward southwest KS where some deepening may occur
over the next several hours. This maturation process will result in
sharpening corridor of large-scale ascent across the central Plains
such that an elongated zone of increasing precipitation should be
noted, especially from northwest KS into north-central NE. Latest
radar data supports this evolution and profiles should continue to
cool along this zone. A developing band of heavy snow is now ongoing
from near Burlington CO-LBF-west of ONL. This band may not move
appreciably through the early-morning hours and snow rates could
easily approach, or perhaps exceed, one inch per hour. Additionally,
winds are expected to increase across the high plains and some
blowing snow may develop as snow cover increases within the band.

..Darrow.. 03/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9-6GtGXpC06CCLjtR5quWMwZ-PoY49yOXA0ltH799nJbDbBXQ117CmPvkA7vEi_BHumcwGk40= A1s7Hcqvmce3HgTV04$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 39390231 40650147 42549957 42489864 40420039 39180166
39390231=20


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