ACUS11 KWNS 291924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291924=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-292130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Areas affected...southern Arkansas northwest Mississippi and extreme
northern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 291924Z - 292130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may congeal into a
loosely organized cluster this afternoon and evening. Occasional
down bursts and damaging wind gusts will be possible as storms
propagate south and east. A weather watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, scattered to numerous thunderstorms
were ongoing along and near a composite front/outflow boundary
across the ArkLaTex. Driven mostly by differential heating within
weak ascent near the boundary, a few stronger multi-cell clusters
are possible with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE present from SPC
mesoanalysis. Additional storm development in the uninhibited and
strongly unstable airmass appears likely through the remainder of
the afternoon and into the early evening. While broader organization
is unlikely, some clustering of the stronger cells may support an
occasional water-loaded downdraft capable of damaging wind gusts
given the high PWAT (2+ inches) airmass. This scenario is reflected
in the latest HRRR guidance which does show some potential for a
loosely organized southeastward propagating cluster this afternoon.
However, given the very limited effective shear (less than 20 kt),
any severe potential will likely be short lived and localized. The
lack of greater storm organization and severe potential suggests a
weather watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Grams.. 07/29/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6uvfHlU7HeLAnWF7pc_wvZS58MPMS_Mkt2xE-DkxjWc8e_iisdHGOjdxmjsRfnEES48fjKiOx= z1wMAPoH05MDHoCajE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 34169398 34219193 34259130 34289077 34199015 33848964
33628967 33168991 33019032 32989090 32939222 32999318
33359396 33449416 34169398=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 180442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180442=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-180645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Extreme southwest SD into western/central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508...

Valid 180442Z - 180645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508
continues.

SUMMARY...Some severe threat could spread southeastward overnight.
Downstream watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell that produced very large hail
across southwest SD has weakened, but an arc of convection in
advance of this weakening cell is gradually intensifying across
parts of west-central NE. A modest low-level jet may help to
maintain convection as it spreads southeastward into central NE
overnight.=20

The evolution of storms and any attendant severe potential remains
uncertain overnight. Some guidance suggests the potential for
organized upscale growth overnight, as convection moves
southeastward near the MUCAPE and 850 mb moisture gradient. However,
the extent of moisture return and destabilization in advance of the
ongoing convection remains uncertain, and convection is likely to
remain somewhat elevated within an environment of stout MLCINH. As a
result, even if there is an uptick in storm intensity and
organization, the severe-wind threat could be somewhat limited. If
storms are able to propagate or develop into a more favorably
unstable environment across south-central/southeast NE, then a more
substantial wind threat could develop.=20

Given the uncertainties described above, the need for downstream
watch issuance in the short term remains uncertain, but remains
possible if a notable uptick in storm coverage/intensity occurs
overnight.

..Dean/Edwards.. 07/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_5NRIdd9tkW2TWWkzmkPImYLBrx7h6IL3noTt82tKGMj1sJzTaWqJ6C4kUZzCMP75eyvTKlLT= cevlQQD16nwK8NJUkY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 43160265 43640213 43060063 42149864 41759758 41339704
40809692 40499709 40309786 40399975 40670097 40930144
41770103 42250110 42480153 42650216 43160265=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)