ACUS11 KWNS 281700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281700=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-281900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Areas affected...Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valleys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281700Z - 281900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to gradually increase in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon hours, and may pose a
damaging wind risk. Watch issuance is currently not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity trends over the past hour reveal
a broad MCV moving eastward across central Missouri. Lift ahead of
this feature is promoting increasing cloud cover over the region.
However, breaks in the clouds across southeast MO to the lower-OH
River Valley have allowed for some diurnal destabilization.
Temperatures rising into the mid 80s, coupled with low 70s
dewpoints, are fostering MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Further evidence
of this trend is noted in visible imagery as shallow convective
cumulus, as well as a few deeper towers with occasional lightning,
continue to increase in coverage. Regional VWPs from western MO are
sampling 30-40 knot winds in the 5-7 km layer in the vicinity of the
MCV, which is supporting stronger deep-layer shear than reflected in
recent mesoanalyses.=20

Consequently, the combination of improving thermodynamics and
adequate kinematics may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms
this afternoon. Thunderstorms intensifying ahead of the MCV or
developing along a diffuse outflow boundary and/or the
southward-moving cold front will likely consolidate into loosely
organized clusters, though one or two semi-consolidated lines appear
possible, as hinted by a few hi-res solutions. While damaging winds
appear probable, confidence in the coverage of strong/severe
convection remains limited given the marginal thermodynamic profiles
and increasing cloud cover (which should act to slow further
destabilization).

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/28/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!520N0cmqZzq1dZJ16JwqGBONKJrQatBRcCDbuvsHpcyEwS6M5Pf2OZK22Rj0QhoBnOgGtguOR= iXecTBazWpY9SitLaI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37639263 38489260 38679191 38928986 38858847 38438782
37588774 36868805 36788938 36909072 37109203 37639263=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 172319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172319=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-180045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Parts of south-central Kansas into northwest
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 506...

Valid 172319Z - 180045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 506
continues.

SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and significant severe gusts will
remain possible with an intense supercell in south-central Kansas.
Convective trends suggest this storm will impact parts of northwest
Oklahoma within the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell continues east-southeast of Dodge
City. Hail of 2.5-3 inches has recently been reported with this
storm. Given the strength of the mesocyclone/rear-flank downdraft on
KDDC velocity data, significant severe wind gusts are also possible.
Radar imagery over the last hour has generally suggested that the
rear-flank gust front has remained out ahead of this storm. There
are surface southeasterly winds on the eastern flank of this storm
per ASOS/OK Mesonet data. Should this storm be able to pull this
boundary in, a tornado would be possible. Similar to yesterday,
there is some dryness in the low levels noted on short-term forecast
soundings. Convection along the rear-flank gust front has been
developing periodically with this storm and has merged into the main
updraft. This storm will likely maintain intensity as long as this
process continues and the impacts of entrainment can be minimized.
Given current surface observations and objective mesoanalysis this
storm is likely to move south or perhaps just west of south. While
MLCIN is present, it is not overly prohibitive, and there is some
potential for this mature storm to move into the far eastern OK/TX
Panhandles. Trends will be monitored. Development farther east of
this storm is not certain given the effects of anvil cloud cover and
otherwise nebulous convergence in the surface wind field.

..Wendt.. 07/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5HWWFQCXpoczMARdObVjB0oM19x6MjIDGsMykKt_I42OP4Zz2RtSP1CUli_ZhHaNeon5O5Z5H= tSwyY3eVIp4cpp-nog$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 36019974 36160018 36730029 37839988 37899959 37749902
37479812 37239777 36499773 35979869 36019974=20


=3D =3D =3D
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