ACUS11 KWNS 280446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280446=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-280615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Areas affected...the Colorado Kansas Nebraska tri-state region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504...

Valid 280446Z - 280615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504
continues.

SUMMARY...Sporadic severe hail and wind gusts remains possible over
the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...East/southeast low-level winds are helping to maintain
60s F dewpoints ahead of a cold front now surging south across
central NE. While boundary-layer CIN continues to increase with
time, favorable directional shear with height and ample moisture are
helping to maximize storm relative inflow with the various clusters
and cells, with propagation generally in a southeastward direction.
Given the convection along the front over central NE, several more
hours of sporadic hail or wind threat is expected over the watch
area. While an additional watch is not anticipated, additional
counties in KS may need to be added should storms remain severe
later tonight as they approach the southern and eastern bounds.

..Jewell.. 07/28/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Oh262zX3bdqkni_OrMnkGG61cOB3UmV6KcNpiJeki3xHZoE5frH8-hjChZbu3Jrix01-MGlS= UKwqNNnmgsht5XoFKs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39179968 39180323 41390440 41380071 39179968=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 172046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172045=20
AZZ000-172245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 172045Z - 172245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are possible through the afternoon.
A watch is not expected given the localized/sporadic nature of the
severe risk.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along the
Mogollon Rim and far south-central AZ this afternoon, where
temperatures have warmed into the 105-110 F range amid upper 50s
dewpoints. The resulting deep boundary layer/steep low-level lapse
rates -- characterized by an inverted-V thermodynamic profile --
will support dry microburts with severe-outflow potential with any
stronger updrafts that develop. Weak deep-layer shear should
generally limit updraft longevity/organization, and the overall
coverage of severe storms is expected to remain too minimal for a
watch.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7qW1dq0f9gqCmUCvYzw6s9ShTT2hwEPwlXjPLl9FC2SoBy2JJGrnZhf_DZ8UA57EPUq9HjC_1= ikr_qz64vH_4ImUuB8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31271116 31421164 31641217 31971236 32761244 33801246
34211236 34361207 34391165 34181103 33791041 33060985
31690944 31300954 31280990 31271116=20


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