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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1600

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 28, 2022 00:12:58
    ACUS11 KWNS 280012
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280012=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1600
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0712 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

    Areas affected...southeast Missouri into northern Arkansas and far
    western Tennessee and Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 280012Z - 280245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may persist for a few hours, with locally strong to
    severe gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Areas of vigorous convection have developed along a
    weak surface trough, and along the southern periphery of the
    stronger midlevel flow aloft. Surface analysis shows mid to upper
    70s F dewpoints and heating have contributed to MLCAPE in excess of
    3000 J/kg, with the most robust convection now over southeast MO.

    Given this high-PWAT and uncapped air mass, storms may persist for a
    few hours as they move slowly southeastward. Winds above the surface
    are forecast to increase steadily as well, aiding storm-relative
    inflow. Given only minor large-scale support and loss of heating,
    the severe risk is expected to remain localized, but trends will
    continue to be monitored for any further upscale growth along the
    boundary.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 07/28/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Av7RgeRtLlKgJmxVW7AxUEDwCQFCc1XxraiWzagbtT9_sm6S7Y8321OlVanUBQpWuLW-yGij= 7SB_v9b-ALZyNxtuC0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 36199301 36439203 36709120 36949070 37189040 37128971
    36818899 36258885 35708955 35379071 35449178 35499267
    35789311 36199301=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 17, 2023 20:33:45
    ACUS11 KWNS 172033
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172033=20
    TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-172200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1600
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0333 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southern MO into northern AR and
    western TN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504...

    Valid 172033Z - 172200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail threat should spread from southern
    Missouri into northern Arkansas and perhaps western Tennessee over
    the next couple of hours. Downstream watch issuance will likely be
    needed.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells which developed over south-central
    MO earlier this afternoon are beginning to show signs of
    merging/interacting with one another. While a threat for large to
    very large hail (2+ inches) should continue in the short term, the severe/damaging wind threat may increase further over the next
    couple of hours if a small bowing cluster can become established.
    Deep-layer gradually weakens with southward extent into AR and
    western TN, but 30-40+ kt of effective bulk shear should still prove
    favorable for continued convective organization/maintenance this
    afternoon and early evening. A very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE
    3000-3500+ J/kg, is present downstream of the ongoing
    supercells/clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and 1000-1200
    J/kg of DCAPE should will likely aid convective downdrafts reaching
    severe levels of 60+ mph as convection spreads south-southeastward
    this afternoon. A downstream watch into parts of northern AR and
    perhaps western TN will likely be needed to address this increasing
    severe hail/wind threat.

    ..Gleason.. 07/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!82pbIJqDa2qnksOC9eV2DyJ8jiuVthWF79WqU798VE9Qxkq662YBQ9WNPTUsr6vpKBMPARrBh= RcmCJhYgD-MCYWmzII$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 37649361 38029263 37999158 37729085 37159018 36428960
    35668936 35029031 35349289 36539328 37649361=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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