ACUS11 KWNS 271754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271753=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-272000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1597
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271753Z - 272000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are gradually intensifying across the
southern Appalachians, and will likely pose at least an isolated
damaging wind risk this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...GOES and regional reflectivity imagery has shown a slow percolation of shallow convection across the southern Appalachians
and along an east-ward propagating outflow boundary over the past
1-2 hours. Recent data (over the past 10-20 minutes) has shown a
gradual uptick in convective intensity, including cooling cloud-top temperatures, rising echo tops, and increasing lightning counts.
This is largely being driven by diurnal heating of a moist boundary
layer across the southern Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic
region. Recent ACARs soundings show this gradual destabilization,
and latest MLCAPE estimates have increased to 1500-2000 J/kg.
Further destabilization is possible where cloud cover is more broken
and temperatures can break out of the upper 80s, which should
maintain the recent intensification trend.=20

Regional VWPs, supplemented by forecast soundings, are generally
sampling 20-35 knot zonal mid-level winds with modest (around 20
knots) deep-layer shear. Wind (and shear) magnitudes generally
increase with northward extent away from the better buoyancy, but
there should be sufficient overlap of favorable
thermodynamics/kinematics to support loosely organized clusters and
perhaps semi-cohesive outflows. In general, the weak kinematic
environment will limit the severe weather threat and minimize the
potential for a watch, but isolated damaging winds appear probable
through the afternoon hours.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/27/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9fSnbS0wNSJt9G2cckzMwPKnMQncjWdPXZf3OukUeoVyfT6y_7n6QqWhjwb3IDeDfmalrjNam= VC8-CDHgBaStbzgKFg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...
JKL...

LAT...LON 35827742 35557872 35598053 35288260 35528341 36088351
37888221 38698066 38807810 38257713 37157680 36317682
35827742=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 171935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171935=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-172100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1597
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern KS into
north-central/northeastern OK and northwestern AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503...

Valid 171935Z - 172100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat continues across parts
of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma and vicinity. The
need for a downstream watch into portions of Arkansas remains
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Convection has generally weakened in the past hour or
so across northeastern OK and vicinity, probably due to weaker
large-scale ascent and residual boundary-layer capping/inhibition
with southward extent into eastern OK. One thunderstorm did recently restrengthen across far northeastern OK into northwestern AR. If it
can persist, then an isolated severe hail/wind threat may continue
into more of northwestern/north-central AR this afternoon given a
strongly unstable and sheared environment that will remain favorable
for supercells. Still, the need for a downstream watch into AR
remains uncertain, as the overall severe threat will probably tend
to remain rather isolated in the short term.

In the wake of the earlier cluster, some redevelopment appears
possible across south-central/southeastern KS into north-central OK
based on recent visible satellite trends. Any surface-based
convection that can form across this area will likely be
supercellular, with a threat for very large hail given 50-60+ kt of northwesterly deep-layer shear and 3000-4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. But, a
lingering cap may continue to inhibit robust thunderstorm
development with westward extent in south-central KS/north-central
OK. Given this uncertainty, the western/northern extent of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 503 has not been cleared at this time.

..Gleason.. 07/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_kWw4iWyv_Z-Yk7veqBSjvGb4gbYypd02miQQdUKUbPu4MUi3_Ep86piZZ_9BA4l-4M2o20C5= 335udKLj4iqwr1dAQg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 37059828 37859812 38009551 37109516 36809505 36459464
36439385 36409277 36139255 35639257 35049275 34979361
34959440 35319538 35719667 36289784 37059828=20


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