1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1580

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 25, 2022 00:15:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 250015
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250014=20
    NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-250145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1580
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0714 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

    Areas affected...northern New Jersey and southeast New York into
    southwest New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 250014Z - 250145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Clusters of fast-moving thunderstorms may produce gusty
    winds for a few more hours from southeast New York into southern New
    England, but additional watches are unlikely for this round of
    activity.

    DISCUSSION...Two separate areas of storms currently exist over the
    area. One extending from far northeast PA into southeast NY, and a
    smaller cluster from western MA into far southern VT. These are
    moving east at around 35 kt, and similar gusts up to 40 kt have been
    noted recently, and this should be a reasonable expectation for
    further gusts in the near term. Loss of heating, MLCAPE of only
    750-1000 J/kg, and generally weaker flow as compared to points
    northwest suggest storms are unlikely to gain strength. However,
    isolated strong gusts will remain likely.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 07/25/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ZTW2-5FP344vK_8W0XgpoAtHOqRn0sfy32I8um-tlnwFjhtr0ycJJrQQuNRzBZI8AUGvzOSe= v1HxooKd5n9e2HZLxc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 40967558 41157487 41597441 42017429 42377417 42857364
    43127298 43237225 43087188 42567204 41837279 41537331
    41117394 40877429 40857521 40967558=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 16, 2023 20:32:05
    ACUS11 KWNS 162032
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162031=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-162300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1580
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0331 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of western SD into far northwestern NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162031Z - 162300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
    with any storms that can develop across the area this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates deepening boundary-layer cumulus generally focused over the Black Hills and a NW/SE-oriented pre-frontal confluence zone over southwestern SD this
    afternoon. Modified RAP forecast soundings over this area depict an
    uncapped air mass, characterized by steep midlevel lapse rates atop
    moist northeasterly low-level flow. Continued heating over the
    higher terrain and along the confluence zone may support isolated
    thunderstorm development during the next couple of hours, though
    storm coverage is uncertain given weak large-scale ascent over the
    area.=20

    If storms can develop, a long/straight hodograph (50-60 kt of
    effective shear) would support splitting supercells capable of
    producing large hail and locally severe gusts. Additionally, a
    back-door cold front will approach the area during the next few
    hours, which may also support an uptick in thunderstorms though the
    evening. While a watch is not currently expected given uncertainty
    on storm development/coverage, trends will be monitored.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-CssFxI09_N_ASHlo-4xdgyKukxmoDQLKyKStjkA_PD_CVcQJ1U46YrJ5ZL8qB8VVmG3LXGer= ok1sT7dvpVUBPaumy8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42720350 42980373 43250389 43550399 43860401 44170402
    44440401 44740397 44930377 45000343 44820296 44420227
    43870163 43400133 43010140 42590189 42420233 42390281
    42550324 42720350=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)