ACUS11 KWNS 242039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242038=20
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-242245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1578
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Areas affected...southern IL into central IN and western OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 242038Z - 242245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage should gradually increase through
the evening. Storms may produce strong to severe gusts into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Some modest increase in convection has been noted over
western IN/eastern IL the past 30 minutes or so. This activity is
increasing along a differential heating zone where bands of clouds
and showers have been ongoing for much of the day. Visible satellite
imagery also indicated some vertically developing cumulus from
central IN west/southwest into east-central MO. As the surface cold
front, extending from western Lower MI through central IL/MO
continues to shift east/southeast through the evening, additional
convection is expected to develop. While cloud cover has limited
heating across parts of the region, surface dewpoints in the 70s
beneath modest midlevel lapse rates are contributing to moderate to
strong instability. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt
should allow for organized cells/clusters mainly capable of
producing strong to severe gusts.=20

A couple rounds of convection are possible into the evening hours,
with activity now increasing producing one round of convection
before additional storms develop along the advancing cold front in a
few hours. Given some uncertainty convective evolution/timing over
the next couple of hours, trends will be monitored and a watch may
be needed for portions of the MCD area in the next few hours.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/24/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7gyFnq-fChkLhJ5_mpPsgxycX5GQMfV1qIAZvv9ArbTyMKE-mGJY80lj1D5O1sx5TlKqv0UnN= vFY6SF9baylT7JvSWI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 39048935 39968794 40148769 40938614 41228524 41198482
41048449 40708435 40268439 39808459 39398490 38918596
38688711 38188866 38198928 38488961 39048935=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 161850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161850=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-162015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1578
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northeast TX into southern AR and
northern LA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

Valid 161850Z - 162015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds around 50-60 mph will likely
spread east-southeastward across parts of northern Louisiana and
southern Arkansas this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A small convective cluster has recently intensified
across northeast TX while producing multiple reports of tree damage,
prompting issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498. A very unstable
airmass and steepened low-level lapse rates are present downstream
of this cluster across northern LA and southern AR, with MLCAPE of
3000-4000+ J/kg present. Although deep-layer shear remains modest,
generally 20-30 kt or less, this cluster will probably maintain its
intensity as it moves east-southeastward across northern LA and
vicinity over the next couple of hours. Given the very favorable
thermodynamic environment, scattered damaging winds generally around
50-60 mph should continue to be the main threat with this
convection. Locally greater winds to 65-70 mph may occur.

..Gleason.. 07/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9D3SCeT-ZyziCh0bBQZRjtJy-aalQcUBTJGpBTLJZt746CzuczOiv7Yh8A1L3gBQiFNLK2xJR= t2hAmyRVBzS55oko8M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...

LAT...LON 33569422 33219287 32599212 31709221 31629306 32379480
32819450 33569422=20


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