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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1566

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 23, 2022 19:36:57
    ACUS11 KWNS 231936
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231936=20
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-232100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1566
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0236 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

    Areas affected...southeast MN...northeast IA...southern WI and far
    northern IL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...

    Valid 231936Z - 232100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe storms will continue producing gusts around 55-70
    mph across southeast MN and northeast IA into southwest WI the next
    few hours. Severe potential will increase across much of southern WI
    into far northern IL later this afternoon and evening.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms
    are ongoing this afternoon across southeast MN into north-central
    IA. This activity has produce gusts up to 66 mph and sporadic damage
    over the past hour. The expectation is that this activity may
    intensify and become better organized as it shifts east into a
    warmer and more unstable environment across northeast IA/southwest
    WI. Forecast RAP soundings and the 18z RAOB from DVN continue to
    indicate a favorable environment for intense winds and a swath of
    damaging gusts is still expected as convection develops
    east/southeast the next several hours.=20

    These clusters of storms are shifting east/southeast around 40-45
    kt. This track will bring convection close to the eastern edge of WW
    491 by around 21-22z. A downstream watch will likely be needed for
    portions of southern WI into northern IL in the next couple of
    hours.

    ..Leitman.. 07/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5pwDxvJ3goDKlPKqW8HMquwSU9GBOXSj3yEXNL7REsCggDd_jUHWEyKNGqm0R0c9rAtKyVBbQ= fkDHL7Dzhx8hsaZu7M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43799345 44119313 44369243 44339124 44078968 43638826
    43398818 42548822 42208844 42088870 42028934 42199041
    42719300 42849374 42999393 43449375 43799345=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 15, 2023 20:14:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 152014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152014=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1566
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of northeastern TX...southeastern OK...and
    southwestern AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152014Z - 152215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail are
    possible through the afternoon. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are developing/spreading slowly southward along a weak baroclinic
    zone/differential heating boundary draped across the ArkLaTex.
    Within the pre-convective environment, strong surface heating amid
    very rich boundary-layer moisture (upper 70s to lower 80s dewpoints)
    is contributing to a strongly unstable air mass (3500+ J/kg MLCAPE).
    As the inflow for these thunderstorms continues to diurnally
    destabilize this afternoon, updrafts may increase in intensity on a
    localized basis. While deep-layer flow/shear is generally weak
    (especially with southward extent), marginally severe hail and/or
    locally damaging gusts may accompany the stronger pulsating storms
    through the afternoon -- especially if any localized clusters
    develop.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-QCHYuVxlc92nLC3KTb1agGVmloiiNvoW7344zuWsWKpW6yIb95jOufdTEKkY1y65d1IGhVp9= luE-LB_-XVUFzCBEZs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

    LAT...LON 33319615 33039612 32939595 32869522 32989431 33099339
    33249246 33649213 33999208 34279222 34489240 34689264
    34749301 34649359 34459422 34349454 34079524 33819581
    33609602 33319615=20


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