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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1560

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 23, 2022 10:36:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 231036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231035=20
    INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-231200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1560
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0535 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of northern IL/IN and far southwestern
    Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487...

    Valid 231035Z - 231200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and strong/gusty
    continues. Downstream watch issuance into parts of northern Indiana
    may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms has
    recently consolidated across northeastern IL and far northwestern
    IN. A measured wind gust to 58 mph was reported at 1018Z with parts
    of this cluster at KORD (O'Hare). Some embedded stronger cores may
    still be capable of producing marginally severe hail. But, strong to
    locally severe wind gusts should be the main threat in the short
    term given the transition to a more linear/cluster mode. Around
    2000-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE is available to help this convection
    maintain its intensity as it spreads into much of northern IN over
    the next couple of hours. However, deep-layer shear remains fairly
    modest (around 20-25 kt), which may limit thunderstorm organization
    to some extent. Even so, it appears that at least some threat for
    damaging winds may spread eastward of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487,
    and a downstream watch into parts of northern IN may be needed.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Vjv-SE6gDjSCVndFu1-mW4oOVv0rdwwHRbin-wT5qOWZPRppZyzfmEtK83DAUrJZdLVreCNB= C5ZpoU3tFH-PtD8nH0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 41269015 41748986 42148808 42028632 41898495 40708483
    40308522 40478710 40908901 41158983 41269015=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 15, 2023 02:30:17
    ACUS11 KWNS 150230
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150229=20
    MIZ000-INZ000-150400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1560
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0929 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...Northern IN into southwest Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 150229Z - 150400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Some damaging-wind threat may spread eastward late this
    evening. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment has recently intensified across
    northeast IL, with a 53 kt gust recently observed in Aurora, IL.
    Some uptick in storm intensity has also been noted into central IL.
    The downstream environment into northern IN and southwest lower MI
    is not as unstable, but some low-level moistening from the
    southwest, in conjunction with continued support from a midlevel
    shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes, may help to sustain
    these storms as they move eastward late this evening.=20

    While nocturnal cooling has commenced, a residual well-mixed
    boundary layer resulting from earlier diurnal heating/mixing may
    continue to support a threat of locally damaging gusts as storms
    spread across northern IN and Lake Michigan into southwest lower MI.
    Depending on trends over the next 30-60 minutes, watch issuance is
    possible.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Bpuq4kNXxVSgtcC43MpXHKyhyDzafUm2dE2aqk6E6kxnJtYLVovvl28K4LNRoMruc5zAikz8= nfO1wB-cxs7oWGrzSk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

    LAT...LON 43098702 43048505 41868504 40978551 40658603 40678672
    40758723 41128730 42308722 43098702=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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