ACUS11 KWNS 230903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230902=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-231130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southern ND into north-central/eastern
SD and far western MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 230902Z - 231130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage and
intensity over the next couple of hours, with a threat for both
large hail and severe wind gusts. Watch issuance may eventually be
needed.

DISCUSSION...A supercell has recently strengthened over
south-central ND. A 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet is feeding into
this thunderstorm and providing lift for additional convection
farther east across north-central SD. Deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt
is present over this region as strong southerly low-level winds veer
to westerly and strengthen further with height through mid/upper
levels. Isolated large hail will be the primary severe concern in
the short term with the ongoing supercell, as MUCAPE around
1000-2000 J/kg and the strong effective bulk shear supports
continued thunderstorm organization and intensity.

Over the next 2-3 hours, most high-resolution guidance suggests that
convection should grow upscale into a small bowing cluster as it
spreads east-southeastward across far southern ND,
north-central/eastern SD and eventually far western MN. This region
will lie along/near an MUCAPE gradient, with at least moderate
instability present along/south of a surface warm front.
Severe/damaging winds may become an increasing concern towards
11-12Z if this mode transition occurs, especially with eastward
extent into SD where greater low-level moisture is present. Although
watch issuance does not appear likely in the short term (next hour
or so), it may eventually be needed if observational trends indicate
a greater severe wind threat developing.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/23/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6X3hv1n-WbO5-WW9D7Rrkdd-eMm-gYHfdA3jSgkjSYYcS-fjzGkEupvqnZFpNZEiGcOEEySKy= tIfA_x8_qC684luCjs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45219985 45940110 46240123 46360033 46249762 45979579
44579581 44449644 44579858 45219985=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 150128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150128=20
OKZ000-150300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northwest and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493...

Valid 150128Z - 150300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms in northwest Oklahoma appear likely to impact parts
of central Oklahoma this evening. While they may be slightly
elevated, large hail and isolated strong/damaging winds may still
occur. A new watch or local extension of WW 493 may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A few strong/severe storms have developed along a
southward moving outflow boundary in northwest Oklahoma late in the
afternoon. Large hail has been reported with these storms in
Woodward. With the outflow continuing to move south per local radar imagery/surface observations, these storms may have a tendency to
become slightly elevated. With steep mid-level lapse rates and
moderate deep-layer shear observed on the 00Z Norman sounding, large
hail will continue to be a possibility. Strong/damaging wind gusts
would be possible with storms that can remain south of the outflow
or if storms can grow upscale with time. The overall coverage of
storms into central Oklahoma is not certain given the MLCIN also
observed on the Norman sounding, weak low-level convergence, and an
expected weak low-level jet. Depending on convective trends, a new
watch or local extension of WW 493 may be needed.

..Wendt.. 07/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_RNeihofxkjnALJ5-qUMJAtDiMdrBXYC_V3P9L8L_Tvh9OMmGvHy3BEAlQQqPcxpF17i10Wu8= hUoInyT9peidqD0k0A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35469946 35839994 35899998 36049998 36209998 36389980
36559953 36599858 36189754 35959704 35599659 35139652
35029752 35199887 35369923 35469946=20


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