ACUS11 KWNS 170230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170230=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-170330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Areas affected...south-central /southeastern Nebraska and northern
Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471...

Valid 170230Z - 170330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing complex of storms should continue south posing a
severe wind risk (some 75+ mph) near the southern border of WW471. A
general weakening trend is expected as storm encounter increasing
inhibition, but isolated severe wind gusts may linger into portions
of northern KS and southeastern NE.

DISCUSSION...As of 0225UTC, a well-organized, but small MCS with a
history of damaging wind gusts was moving across south-central NE.
Damaging gusts in excess of 75 mph will remain possible in the short
term as the storms move through GID. Current observations place this
cluster near the southern border of WW471 by 03z. Here, SPC
mesoanalysis shows substantial inhibition from warming mid-level
temperatures, drier air and nocturnal cooling. This should result in
a gradual weakening of the cluster as it moves south-southeast over
the next couple of hours. However, given the strong RIJ observed via
the GID VAD/VWP, some wind damage threat may linger for an hour or
two as the storms move south of WW471 into portions of northern KS
and southeastern NE. Trends will be monitored for a small downstream
WW should storms maintain intensity outside of WW471.

..Lyons/Grams.. 07/17/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8uZwD7xe0W0fBtsXfNpWgXcyHLA8WmSRv_jPIUssfUQY7bVtoZT2w_ghZP-Nhzv1hPAwt3T7G= kgeizz03A6w9GD5GGE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON 40220011 40669948 40959879 41009845 40999808 40809767
40549740 40259721 39949717 39569730 39329769 39239827
39199922 39209955 40220011=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 111905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111904=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-112100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern MT...southwestern
ND...northeastern WY...and western SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 111904Z - 112100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing very large hail and severe
winds should spread eastward across the area this afternoon and
evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued in the
next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows gradually
deepening boundary-layer cumulus and isolated convective development
across parts of central into eastern MT this afternoon. Continued
diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist air mass (lower 60s
dewpoints) and DCVA preceding a shortwave trough over northwestern
MT should allow for additional thunderstorm development during the
next couple hours. 40-50 kt of midlevel westerly flow (per regional
VWP data) atop low-level southeasterlies will yield a long/straight
hodograph (45-55-kt effective shear) supportive of discrete
/semi-discrete splitting supercells. Very large hail up to 2.5
inches in diameter and locally severe winds will be possible with
these storms. With time, cell mergers and localized upscale growth
into several organized clusters will be possible, with a continued
risk of large hail and increasing damaging-wind threat. A severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be issued during the next hour or two
for parts of the area.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 07/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4UL55blrr-LO1TlvkbOMaSnrNEDtAQPTkeJZLBCHyfZVFkAzSgYeTRQjvvZvDdXbsG_QsoeD-= hpCVd4Z8QIzOvNdNY8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON 44900659 45720724 46760745 47650750 48250740 48480716
48540677 48500623 48120520 47710431 47120352 46560292
46040248 45290195 44780169 44430156 44150148 43580150
43290177 43090219 43050302 43120344 43300390 43520438
43720478 43990531 44480609 44900659=20


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