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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1496

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 16, 2022 22:53:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 162253
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162252=20
    AZZ000-170045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1496
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0552 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

    Areas affected...Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162252Z - 170045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Gusty winds, and marginally severe hail, are possible with
    convection as it spreads across the lower desert regions this
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Upper ridge over northeastern AZ continues to suppress
    stronger easterly flow near the international border where 500mb
    flow is on the order of 20kt. Within the stronger easterlies, one
    weak wave is advancing across the northern Gulf of California while
    the northern extent of a possible second wave appears to be
    influencing convection across southern Pima/Santa Cruz/Cochise
    County region. This activity is fairly robust and some clustering is
    occurring, but mostly south of the border. Farther north, scattered
    convection has developed over the higher terrain to the north-east
    of the more populated lower deserts. PW values are around 1.25
    inches into the PHX metro where temperatures are near 110F. While
    deep-layer flow is not that strong, adequate easterlies will likely
    allow convection to migrate off the higher terrain with some
    potential for gusty winds as storms propagate toward the eastern PHX
    metro over the next several hours. Severe threat should be fairly
    isolated but gusty wind may accompany much of this convection.
    Severe thunderstorm watch does not currently appear warranted.

    ..Darrow/Grams.. 07/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8R4fPtmqJej0W62UHIvcBfCQQH1Sjod8ofkRBri0YcfdflHU6TM5z7XDqLkSdGPWFGfnonQYY= nFBkXNWdVMZRzBQ0_8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 34471252 33641049 31881030 31371063 31501160 32871181
    33861310 34471252=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 11, 2023 05:40:39
    ACUS11 KWNS 110540
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110540=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-110715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1496
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

    Areas affected...western/central OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 110540Z - 110715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk of sporadic hail to
    near 1 inch diameter and gusty winds overnight.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing across parts of western
    and central OK late tonight ahead of a convectively enhanced
    vorticity maxima now ejecting across the OK/TX Panhandles. This
    activity is developing in an environment with MUCAPE around
    1500-2500 J/kg and effective shear near 30 kt. A 05z RAOB from OUN
    also shows steep midlevel lapse rates are present, but SB/ML CINH
    are also large. This may support briefly intense cores capable of
    producing hail. Regional VWP data and 850 mb RAP objective analysis
    indicates only modest low-level flow. Strong low-level inhibition
    and the absence of a stronger low-level jet to aid in storm
    organization should limit severe potential to a couple of briefly
    intense cells. Sporadic hail and gusty winds will be the main
    concern with this activity over the next few hours. While a severe
    thunderstorm watch does not appear likely at this time, trends will
    be monitored and a watch could be issued if better storm
    organization can occur.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8zV2Td-wO_67CG2l_7RSPfbIHAvJ3kCevRbGX1U6RnUUldpCbjF14kA-XAIppOsHY0SrbDDoJ= FIPscYtUu8IfIwaoAU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 35099941 35389969 35709998 36019998 36539947 36899880
    37009833 37009812 36919762 36449711 35589650 34689620
    34379640 34259693 34689836 35099941=20


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