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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1550

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 22, 2022 22:08:50
    ACUS11 KWNS 222208
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222208=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-230015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1550
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0508 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of south-central NE and northwest KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 222208Z - 230015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for isolated severe
    thunderstorm potential. The primary concerns are sporadic large hail
    and locally severe gusts. A watch is not currently expected this
    afternoon, though trends are being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a deepening cumulus
    field over western KS into southwest NE, and isolated convective
    development is ongoing along the border. This convection is
    developing in a deeply-mixed boundary layer with large
    temperature/dewpoint spreads and steep midlevel lapse rates.
    Generally weak large-scale ascent/minimal surface convergence along
    with long/mostly straight hodographs (30-40 kt of effective bulk
    shear) should favor a few discrete supercell structures capable of
    sporadic large hail and locally severe gusts over parts of
    south-central NE and northwest KS. With time, convection should
    generally spread east-southeastward into richer boundary-layer
    moisture (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) in southern NE, potentially
    resulting in increasing convective intensity/coverage. Current
    thinking is convective coverage may be too isolated for a watch,
    though trends are being monitored.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8M9M4hRDYlTqQykWRsfkpIuEridrOlVV9Xe45nRDwH06C-SlyqZIU_tuA2uHJvI0X4zlRpz2g= Msh6T_3gHPjADriO64$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 38980155 39940146 40670124 41510093 41680030 41719975
    41519931 40729895 39839906 38459946 38000000 38010121
    38260149 38980155=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 14, 2023 20:11:13
    ACUS11 KWNS 142011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142010=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-142245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1550
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0310 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of southern/central MN into northwestern WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142010Z - 142245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail and locally
    damaging gusts are possible across parts of southern/central MN into northwestern WI into early evening. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A few loosely organized thunderstorms are tracking
    eastward across parts of southwestern/south-central MN this
    afternoon -- generally focused along a NNE/SSW-oriented surface
    trough. Ahead of this activity, differential heating along the
    northern edge of widespread cloud coverage should provide a
    favorable corridor across parts of southern/central MN into
    northwestern WI for the maintenance of this activity into the early
    evening time frame. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across the
    area and an elongated/straight hodograph (around 30 kt of effective
    shear) could support marginal supercell structures and loosely
    organized clusters capable of producing marginally severe hail and
    locally damaging winds. Overall, the severe threat is expected to
    remain too marginal/isolated for a watch.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4uMODb6_F1dWI5HLNNFHgg-FKtMaPtIJQb_9qqnb92Ptxt7gFaflt7f9Dp8BKpJ4GlqX_n2Ku= PP2EkYDNdEA9rSqpgM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 44169582 44299604 44549613 44929620 45289606 45479573
    45599498 45689410 45839342 46059294 46399241 46389176
    46209112 45809081 45279079 44839101 44579145 44409189
    44259255 44209399 44159535 44169582=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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