ACUS11 KWNS 212335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212335=20
MEZ000-220030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...Parts of Maine

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...

Valid 212335Z - 220030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized risk of damaging gusts continues across parts
of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479. A one hour extension of the watch
may be warranted over parts of northern Maine.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and IR satellite data shows an overall
decrease in convective intensity across Severe Thunderstorm Watch
479, though a few loosely organized clusters/line segments capable
of damaging gusts continue spreading northeastward across parts of
Maine ahead of a cold front. Regional VWP data shows nearly 35 kt of
0-6 km bulk shear and modestly curved low-level hodographs, which
should continue to maintain this activity despite a gradual increase
in nocturnal boundary-layer stability. A local one hour extension of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479 could be warranted over parts of
northern Maine.

..Weinman.. 07/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5XS-pEY_kCjFPpS2biUTZrffxWK7g1ADvM6niRaDdGOen7bsnvWFn192H2beRO6xYHH2_8ga-= wI0KVa10o1juUh-euE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 44667033 44797089 45397084 46337031 47476944 47526878
47246779 46626768 45816818 44976931 44667033=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 141714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141714=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-141945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northern MS...Middle TN...and northern
AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141714Z - 141945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible through the
afternoon. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of storms is tracking
eastward across parts of the Mid-South ahead of an MCV. While
deep-layer flow/shear is not particularly strong, some flow
enhancement associated with the approaching MCV may support briefly
organized updrafts embedded within the larger cluster of storms.
Ahead of these storms, efficient heating of a very moist air mass
(upper 70s/lower 80s dewpoints) is yielding strongly unstable
surface-based inflow (characterized by increasingly agitated HCRs
streaming across the region). Isolated damaging gusts are possible
with this activity through the afternoon -- especially with any
localized clusters that develop.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-nch_5lKffLjYne36y99inYeDubxsi7iUICl3E0unTpJkBYZpeVsMsWQwjNTufDfq-9PGF0uC= nSTZyEe0rVhegXgVUI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 34728914 34438998 34309037 34149060 33719079 33109068
32879045 32668984 32638877 32648780 32908703 33358652
34098620 35428598 35918612 36208645 36388717 36318746
36068786 35228848 34728914=20


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