ACUS11 KWNS 212159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212159=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-212330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota into northern
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212159Z - 212330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and severe gust potential will continue with
ongoing storms over the next few hours. However, the severe threat
is expected to remain more isolated and a WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercells have become
established across portions of ND over the past couple of hours,
with a more sustained supercell structure recently producing
significant severe (2+ inch) hail. Forcing is subtle, as these
storms are developing with the aid of a glancing weak 500 mb impulse
now traversing the ND/MN border. RAP forecast soundings show
elongated, rather straight hodographs amid 8-9 C/km tropospheric
lapse rates, supporting organized storms structures capable of
sustaining mid-level rotation. Given a well-mixed boundary layer
extending up to 700 mb, severe gusts are also possible. The
localized, isolated nature of the severe threat suggests that a WW
issuance is currently not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4TMh-nZGzHwLNrSJTfJvb9KdBZv9Yc459pR0iIeIhzuDJxORIkxcotvtEn4Z_mcT8o5SEfQMw= zCvKZ69C-OFBNSYFwU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 47330213 46749859 46199765 45619768 45429801 45359943
45690086 46150186 46310200 46700221 47330213=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 141353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141352=20
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-141545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0852 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141352Z - 141545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds with a small cluster of thunderstorms remains unclear this morning. Trends will be monitored
for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms ongoing over southern
New England is probably tied to modest low-level warm advection and
a subtle mid-level perturbation embedded within southwesterly flow
aloft extending over much of the Northeast. The airmass downstream
of this convection is not particularly unstable this morning, with
considerable MLCIN still present per latest mesoanalysis estimates,
and by modifying the 12Z OKX sounding for current surface
observations. Even so, enhanced mid/upper-level flow noted on the
VWP from KBOX is contributing to around 30-40 kt of deep-layer
shear, which should continue to foster updraft organization with the
cluster as it moves eastward across parts of southern New England
over the next couple of hours. The main uncertainty is whether the
ongoing thunderstorms will remain slightly elevated, or become
surface based with additional daytime heating and modest increases
in boundary-layer instability. If the cluster can become surface
based, then scattered damaging winds would be possible across parts
of CT, RI, and MA. While not immediately likely, convective trends
will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance this morning.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-dLmyW2EF9mfmOaBspFLT-b0DMTWUDbBNj0gmulPcqPdOIJYWPScS_HyFjkvNMll0fUUIli_N= UsjRVIFqnOeXq6mHS8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON 41797287 42157266 42587146 42547079 42007053 41267098
40997189 40697298 41067288 41417285 41797287=20


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