ACUS11 KWNS 211808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211807=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-212000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1535
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...New England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...

Valid 211807Z - 212000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479
continues.

SUMMARY...Wind damage and an isolated tornado threat will continue
across the western and central parts of WW 479 this afternoon. The
severe threat is expected to move eastward into parts of Maine over
the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic imagery shows a cluster of strong to
severe storms from northern New York extending eastward and
southward across western New England. The strongest storms are
located in west-central New England along an axis of moderate
instability, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg.
Amid the larger cluster, a well-developed supercell is ongoing in
western New Hampshire. The instability combined with 0-6 km shear in
the 40 to 50 knot range according to the RAP, will continue to
support supercell development. Supercells should be capable of wind
damage and perhaps a brief tornado or two. However, the latest HRRR
suggests that convective coverage will continue to rapidly increase.
This will favor linear development along the instability axis. This
line is expected to become increasing organized and move into
western Maine within a few hours. The stronger parts of the line are
expected to be associated with wind damage.

..Broyles.. 07/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-0ghbSy_GRAeI11gbKazoWn1SYDLXmQJkxwbI9PQxTsZ_EBHrBIq5NnG0r94MTz8GGqU-4qnY= XtHX5h46STDfpIwT1o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 42547167 42867111 43187024 43546952 43896917 44356886
45136890 45846905 46116944 45977013 45407099 44977203
44607285 43967344 43427360 42807364 42067365 41657365
41447342 41437291 41817244 41987229 42247207 42547167=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 140116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140116=20
NEZ000-140245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1535
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western into central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484...

Valid 140116Z - 140245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and localized severe gusts may spread
east of WW 484, but downstream watch issuance currently appears
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing at 01 UTC across
western NE, within an environment characterized by MLCAPE in excess
of 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt. However, convective mode
has become rather messy, and storms have struggled to maintain
severe intensity over the last hour or so. Given the favorable
environment, some threat for isolated hail and/or severe gusts may
continue in the short term, though with nocturnal cooling and
increasing MLCINH (which is already rather large on the 00Z LBF
sounding), a gradual weakening trend is expected with time.=20

Some severe threat may spread east of WW 484, but unless there is an
uptick in storm organization and intensity, downstream watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time. Elevated convection could
redevelop later tonight over portions of western NE with a localized
severe threat, though this may remain isolated and largely occur
after the 03 UTC expiration time of WW 484.

..Dean/Guyer.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Bp7hDA_bRWrm9v4D1YyEk_uoaXZqRj9RqBGfoSCsIPlF5mycrxf09JnvvswDfdQ-MnUcob9D= TH0JL-yvxqZrwtHFRI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 41260191 42510042 42669930 42109871 41439869 40969910
40649978 40290156 40720198 41260191=20


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