ACUS11 KWNS 211638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211638=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-211845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Virginia and central
North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 211638Z - 211845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon
across central portions of North Carolina and Virginia. Potential
for locally damaging winds with these storms may warrant WW
consideration.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows a relative minimum
in cloud cover from portions of central North Carolina northward
across central Virginia, south of the northern Virginia cold front
and northeast of an MCV crossing west-central North Carolina. With
surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s across this region,
heating has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 2000 to 2500
J/kg range.=20=20

Initial development of storms within this destabilizing environment
is occurring near the aforementioned MCV. With time, storm coverage
is expected to expand northeastward to the vicinity of the slowly southeastward-advancing cold front. Given moderate westerly flow at
low to mid levels, and some increase in the mid-level winds with
time, organized storms -- and some later upscale growth into bands
-- is expected. Given accompanying/increasing potential for locally
damaging wind gusts, WW may become needed over the next hour or so.

..Goss/Hart.. 07/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-VjUCpzCNEFZTOIMPR2SdgQqfjKPc4gzHN7D1tyHSG4_5AueG8jWwxRbwJ3rMQXRjZXTBS31m= wABEHkc_qa9T5a7O8M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 35398098 36198016 36397956 36997906 37817891 38057885
38867715 38647624 37717624 36577687 35427899 35398098=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 140017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140017=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-140145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Central/southern MN into far northern IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488...

Valid 140017Z - 140145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail/wind continues across WW 488,
and may spread east/southeast of the watch with time. Local
expansion of the watch may be considered, but the need for new
downstream watch issuance remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION...At 0015 UTC, several supercells are ongoing across central/southern MN, with a few isolated reports of golf ball to
baseball size hail noted with the strongest storms. Low-level
moisture remains modest at best across all but southwest MN, but
midlevel lapse rates are sufficiently steep for MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. Unidirectional westerly wind profiles with effective shear of
30-40 kt will remain supportive of splitting supercells this
evening, with a continued threat of large hail and localized
damaging winds.=20

An eventual weakening trend is expected as nocturnal
cooling/stabilization commences across the region, and outflow
emanating from an earlier storm cluster across IA stabilizes part of
southeast MN. However, some severe threat may spread east/southeast
out of WW 488. Local watch expansion may be considered depending on
convective trends, but the need for new downstream watch issuance is
uncertain at this time.

..Dean/Guyer.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7uM10H5L6NHBb5ROJk78shtp3Ddq-k9IOjm5HHLHzbWngNgkin78d2ofQ6b5gZAJNrPC68Ip0= nIjJ5rBVWpnMmNyz8Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 43799690 45799572 46489527 46199385 45599301 43809239
43359240 43089384 42719570 43799690=20


=3D =3D =3D
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