ACUS11 KWNS 211605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211604=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-211800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Areas affected...portions of Georgia into eastern South
Carolina/southeastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211604Z - 211800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm development will continue across portions of Georgia
and into the eastern South Carolina vicinity. Gusty/locally
damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms, but WW
issuance is not anticipated in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows an outflow
extending from northwestern Georgia east-southeastward across
central Georgia, and then eastward/northeastward across eastern
South Carolina.

Substantial cloud cover north of the outflow is maintaining a more
stable environment, but heating of the moist boundary layer near and
south of the boundary is contributing to 2000 to 2500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE. This is supporting renewed convection along the
outflow, the strongest of which are indicated over northwestern
Georgia, where low-level southeasterly flow impinging on the
boundary is focusing ascent.

Despite ample instability and the slowly advancing outflow providing
a focus for convective redevelopment, flow aloft remains modest,
with westerlies generally at or below 15 to 20 kt through the lowest
3 to 4km. As such, while a local risk for gusty winds/tree damage
will exist with a few stronger cells, overall risk does not appear
to warrant WW consideration at this time.

..Goss/Hart.. 07/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_VJZaDahrmKgxT0chyCL-IYSwsXYQSLY0YWdQbzdZynyT72gOPIAN8DJxDuRafWxTDCvZahka= zYIl-VKUerMJnKcojI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

LAT...LON 33828515 33228383 33128296 33378130 34507964 34517846
34027832 32898057 32188198 32378378 32388475 32968514
33828515=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 140004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140004=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-140100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Central Wisconsin into northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 140004Z - 140100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Small to marginally severe hail is possible until after
sunset.

DISCUSSION...A few marginal supercell storms have formed within a
convergence axis from central Wisconsin into northern Illinois.
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will continue to support some
storm organization. Given the overall weak forcing, these storms
will likely weaken after sunset. Small to marginally severe hail
(around 1 inch) may occur on an isolated basis.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ibylecf_QGDDheGwknAy1GuZeh8BT4_SF1WzAKp3ari_c5InZsBv2LXVBLMJkpTfDttppJ9e= R_UyhDGh9SqKrIktKQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 42109030 42459032 43119040 43939059 44839117 45119111
45079072 44829017 44198939 43678907 42788832 42468823
42148837 41778841 41568888 41599004 41929029 42109030=20


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