ACUS11 KWNS 202357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202356=20
PAZ000-OHZ000-210130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Areas affected...northeastern Ohio and far northwestern PA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478...

Valid 202356Z - 210130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms including a few supercells should continue
eastward with a risk for damaging wind gusts this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2345 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a band of
severe storms ongoing across northeast OH and the CLE metro
vicinity. A few of these storms have shown transient supercell
traits consistent with the expected storm mode from the 30-40 kt of
vertical shear as sampled by the 20z ILN sounding and the CLE
VAD/VWP. Storm organization and subsequent potential for damaging
wind gusts should continue this evening into portions of
northeastern OH where a warm and buoyant airmass (2000-3000 J/kg of
MCLAPE) remains in place. Some upscale growth of the ongoing
clusters is possible, though uncertain, as high-res model guidance
appears overdone with storm coverage. Should additional storms
develop, the primary risk corridor will likely remain far
northeastern OH and northwestern PA where low-level convergence and
buoyancy will be maximized along the lake shore. Storms should
gradually begin to weaken after sunset, as nocturnal stabilization
begins to set in. until then, isolated damaging wind gusts will
remain possible with the better organized supercellular/clusters as
they move eastward.

..Lyons.. 07/20/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9XmhkMG-jf3KYnMEFtnS8rNimlONx2NT99cH3t5EFfhvuiaNI0MoliHkQZhVyfhWqiMh51Boe= KZM9Lfi9tJLTecdyXU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40538341 42058162 42108001 40458146 40538341=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 132221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132221=20
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-132345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of New England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481...

Valid 132221Z - 132345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two will
remain possible in eastern New York into far western Vermont,
Massachusetts, and Connecticut. A downstream watch is not
anticipated this evening due to a decreasingly favorable
thermodynamic environment.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to
move east through eastern New York and into Vermont. A couple
discrete storms exist south of Albany as well. The shortwave trough
is now lifting northeast into Quebec. While mid-level ascent should
decrease with time, some 850 mb flow enhancement will remain as will
a slightly better thermodynamic environment in southeastern New York
into far western Massachusetts/Connecticut. Damaging wind gusts are
expected to be the primary threat over the next 2-3 hours. Area VWP
continue to show sufficient low-level veering to support a continued
threat of a tornado or two. The best low-level shear is between the
Red Hook/Albany vicinity per NY Mesonet profilers. Discrete storms
in this area would pose the greatest risk for a brief tornado.
Activity is expected to become more marginal with time as the
boundary layer cools and mid-level ascent decreases further. A
downstream watch is not currently expected this evening.

..Wendt.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-5xiPVetEntO82cWpXz9slyxrk_qJ0CmoMB5YuHrNdDsk0I6PawcE2sx4IH7jJd8CXa7rUzKD= 33j-5kni4RA4nUCeYA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 42157555 42287558 42427545 42697482 43407404 44087351
44537319 44587297 44387233 44257211 43907179 43677172
42697225 42047290 41777328 41707440 41817496 41987526
42117549 42157555=20


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